Pacific Palisades Fire Threatening Santa Monica, California

[Ivan Seeking]

They are expecting gusts up to 70 mph again and have issued a most severe fire alert for much of the LA basin. It looks like one area where I lived may get hit.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

https://www.currentresults.com/Weat...temperature-average-by-decade-los-angeles.php

 

[Ivan Seeking]

How was your day at work?

 

[Flyboy]

Citation please. It's nearly impossible to drain a large reservoir in a few days.

"Reservoir" in this case is not being used in the typical sense of "large, artificial lake" and is being used in the technical term of "liquid storage structure"

https://www.nbcnews.com/weather/wildfires/california-fire-water-tanks-went-dry-palisades-rcna186860

The volumes involved are large for water storage tanks in the region, but are not what people think of when you say "large reservoir".

That said, even with something the size of a large lake, it sounds like water delivery was a major issue, as noted above, alongside the admission that the water supply infrastructure is simply not designed for this kind of scenario:

The manager of the Altadena Water district, Tom Majich:
"To fight a wildfire, you have to have Lake Havasu behind you. You could fill a Rose Bowl with water and it wouldn't be enough. There's not a system that can do it."

From memory, another statement I ran across but can't find at the moment said:
City neighborhood water systems are designed to handle the daily usage of our customers and a building fire or two. We had 4 times the normal usage for 15 hours. (If i recall correctly, that emptied 2 large reservoirs, a third reservoir had been drained for needed repairs.)

This one's gonna burn until the winds die down and/or they get a decent rain storm through the region, probably both.

The fire spread so fast because "...high winds were carrying burning embers one to three miles beyond the fireline."

Ahhhh, spotfires. The biggest reason for fires to spread so quickly, especially into an urban environment. Part of why keeping your gutters clean is so important... a dirty gutter grows more than just weeds.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Ahhhh, spotfires. The biggest reason for fires to spread so quickly, especially into an urban environment. Part of why keeping your gutters clean is so important... a dirty gutter grows more than just weeds.

It has been reported that embers often entered homes through their vents, such as the attic vents This is how many fires spread from home to home.

Firemen noticed that fires were often starting from the insides of houses. That is why.

 

[Flyboy]

Yep.

I grew up in Sacramento, CA, so although we never faced immediate threat from the fires, it was certainly an ever-present part of the background of life. Hearing and seeing the tankers lumbering (and later screaming as they switched from props to jets) out of McClellan, the plumes of pyrocumulous on the eastern horizon, the grey skies and reddened sun, the occasional ashfall from nearby fires, the convoys of hi-viz yellow/green wildland fire trucks headed along the freeways… it’s an integral part of my youth. I don’t miss it much, but there’s times I do miss it.

Namely when staring at a brewing supercell thunderstorm when conditions are ripe for tornadoes, but that’s Iowa living for you.

 

[DaveE]

California should just work on burying all their powerlines

1) We are. But it's a HUGE project.
2) Do you have any idea how big and populous California is? How big the distribution network is?
3) Where will the money come from to do this faster than the present rate?

Thanks for your help. We knew that many years ago.

https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/industries-...eliability/undergrounding-program-description

 

[snorkack]

Thank you @PeroK
I am not a climate change denier, and I have no doubt that overall increasing temperatures and less rainfall will lead to a higher risk of wildfires. I'm just saying that pointing to the ongoing fires in LA and saying "see? climate change!" is not helpful. There are plenty of conditions in that region that share some blame in the scope of these fires. I don't think that fixating on climate change will lead to any improvement in the future.

From the first link, the trend (1984 - 2011) in "Mediterranean California" (the coast including the Los Angeles basin) is fewer large fires. It would be nice to have more up to date data like this.

View attachment 355787

And their first three recommendations to "Build Resilience" line up with my previous comment "overbuilding inadequately designed housing in the steep canyons. In an area well known for fires and high winds"

I see one obvious reason why increasing temperatures and less rainfall might lead to a lower risk of wildfires in some regions - especially parts of Southern California.
Fire requires plants - dry plants.
Biomass requires rainfall to grow.
In regions quite near Southern California, like Mojave Desert and Baja California, the vegetation is simply too sparse to propagate fire even if dry. Therefore no wildfires.
Less rainfall and higher temperatures in Southern California might make South California too dry for wildfires - forests and scrub capable of burning die in droughts or due to droughts are unable to grow back after fire. Therefore no more fires.
Where in South California is the highest risk of fire? And which side of that maximum is Santa Monica on? Could a moderate decrease of rainfall make Santa Monica a desert and prevent further fires?

 

[QuarkyMeson]

1) We are. But it's a HUGE project.
2) Do you have any idea how big and populous California is? How big the distribution network is?
3) Where will the money come from to do this faster than the present rate?

Thanks for your help. We knew that many years ago.

https://www.cpuc.ca.gov/industries-...eliability/undergrounding-program-description

2.) The wildfire risk in California doesn't encompass the entire state; it’s likely closer to a quarter of it. According to CalGov, there are 25,000 miles of transmission lines and estimates there are 250,000 miles of distribution lines. Distribution lines are the most likely to cause wildfires, so we'll focus on those.

The average cost to bury a distribution line in California is conservatively estimated at $2 million per mile. To bury the entire distribution network across the state would cost approximately $500 billion. The source you provided states that 33% of the distribution network is already underground, leaving about $330 billion to bury the rest.

If we assume that only 25% of the remaining above-ground distribution network is in areas at risk of wildfire and high winds, the cost to bury that portion drops to roughly $82 billion. That’s comparable to what California spends annually on its K-12 education system or its health and human services agencies. Sounds like a lot, right?

3.) California has received approximately $60 billion from the federal infrastructure bill. The total state government budget is around $300 billion, while Los Angeles alone has a budget of about $24 billion. Southern Edison has roughly $3 billion in credit lines.

It is the responsibility of state and local governments to manage and provide safe infrastructure. There is plenty of money that could be reallocated from pet projects (LA has a budget of something like 1.3 billion alone to "fight" homelessness) to ensure the safety of infrastructure, reducing the risk of fatalities caused by poor design, like this: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/10/us/california-fires-la-power.html

The utility, he said, is upgrading to equipment that withstands 80 m.p.h., but data “strongly implies that older poles and conductors were failing at less than 80 m.p.h.” during this week’s wind storms. The Santa Ana winds that have whipped Los Angeles this week have reached speeds of around 100 m.p.h.

In response to questions about its response, the department of water and power acknowledged that it did not cut power in advance of the fires in the city despite the wind speeds.

That alone is almost 100% likely to result in a large settlement.

All in all, I was simply making an observation that they should hurry up and find the money, not trying to prescribe the cure. Everyone knows this already. Otherwise, people keep needlessly dying while the goverment and power companies keep gettin sued. It doesn't benefit anyone.

 

[russ_watters]

If we assume that only 25% of the remaining above-ground distribution network is in areas at risk of wildfire and high winds, the cost to bury that portion drops to roughly $82 billion. That’s comparable to what California spends annually on its K-12 education system or its health and human services agencies. Sounds like a lot, right?

This group of fires alone may exceed that:

https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c07g73p4805o

 

[gmax137]

It is the responsibility of state and local governments to manage and provide safe infrastructure.

Maybe, in some senses. But the power T&D lines are owned, as far as I know, by the power companies, not the state.

Here's three interesting articles:
https://www.powereng.com/library/reacting-is-not-a-plan-whats-your-wildfire-strategy
https://www.powereng.com/library/wildfire-mitigation-a-framework-to-manage-risk/
https://www.powereng.com/library/understanding-wildfire-risks-from-poles-lines-and-substations

 

[QuarkyMeson]

Maybe, in some senses. But the power T&D lines are owned, as far as I know, by the power companies, not the state.

Here's three interesting articles:
https://www.powereng.com/library/reacting-is-not-a-plan-whats-your-wildfire-strategy
https://www.powereng.com/library/wildfire-mitigation-a-framework-to-manage-risk/
https://www.powereng.com/library/understanding-wildfire-risks-from-poles-lines-and-substations

I think, at least in California, it's pretty complicated as far as where private begins and public ends wrt T&D lines and electrical utilities in general. I'm certaintly not an expert there.

Thanks for the articles, I'll check them out.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

One reporter for the local ABC news spent six years shopping and saving for a home. She and her husband finally found their dream home in the Palisades. They spent one night in it before it burned down in this fire.

 

[Astronuc]

Not quite six years ago, wildfire expert Jack Cohen, who lives in Missoula, in the US state of Montana, visited Pacific Palisades to instruct firefighters and property owners on how to protect homes against wildfires.

Three days of training, including a tour of the community left Cohen hopeful, but the feeling faded when it became clear that his lessons were not going to be fully implemented.

The recent outbreak of wildfires raging in the region has left him with a deep sadness.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/experts-share-inconvenient-truths-wildfires-113520873.html

 

[gmax137]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/experts-share-inconvenient-truths-wildfires-113520873.html

Thanks @Astronuc that piece should be read and re-read.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I don't see that he gave any concrete suggestions that aren't already well known.

He even makes outdated and false statements. No one thinks this is seasonal anymore. Californians are the first to tell you it is fire season all year now. There are no seasons.

Now we will get the rash of I-told-you-so nonsense. Sure, there are many things that can be learned and be improved. But this event was an act of nature. It was a fire hurricane in a tinder box where there has been no significant rain since May of last year.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

On the up side, the high-wind warning has been cancelled. The second wind storm never materialized.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Wow! A firefighter who lost his own home was walking though the ashes of his home and found his wedding ring.

The level of destruction is amazing. Even metal objects like washing machines are usually completely melted away with visible remains.

 

[QuarkyMeson]

I don't see that he gave any concrete suggestions that aren't already well known.

He even makes outdated and false statements. No one thinks this is seasonal anymore. Californians are the first to tell you it is fire season all year now. There are no seasons.

Now we will get the rash of I-told-you-so nonsense. Sure, there are many things that can be learned and be improved. But this event was an act of nature. It was a fire hurricane in a tinder box where there has been no significant rain since May of last year.

https://www.desertsun.com/story/new...ia-fire-prone-power-lines-why-not/3937653002/

This is pretty interesting. From 2019:

That program does not prioritize lines in high wildfire hazard risk zones, but some residents in communities that experienced wildfires, including coastal Malibu and Rancho Palo Verde, have pushed for that policy to change to prioritize risky areas.

Malibu is mentioned as wanting to edit the policy to underground lines in wildfire hazard risk zones first. Not sure if that policy was ever changed.

Another interesting point is how wildly different all the estimates are to underground. Edison says 2 million, PG&E says 3 million, this article says 5 million per mile, etc.

At current undergrounding rates (as of 2019, I guess it would be interesting to see the delta now versus 2025) the article quotes it would only take 1000 more years to underground all T&D lines in California.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

https://www.desertsun.com/story/new...ia-fire-prone-power-lines-why-not/3937653002/

This is pretty interesting. From 2019:



Malibu is mentioned as wanting to edit the policy to underground lines in wildfire hazard risk zones first. Not sure if that policy was ever changed.

Another interesting point is how wildly different all the estimates are to underground. Edison says 2 million, PG&E says 3 million, this article says 5 million per mile, etc.

At current undergrounding rates (as of 2019, I guess it would be interesting to see the delta now versus 2025) the article quotes it would only take 1000 more years to underground all T&D lines in California.

The bottom line is, that is a political (money) problem. Everyone knows the solutions.

People have been fighting this battle since the1970s.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

 

[Tom.G]

Citation please. It's nearly impossible to drain a large reservoir in a few days.

Obviously my memory was somewhat volatile.

https://www.ladwpnews.com/pacific-p...ing-misinformation-about-ladwps-water-system/

"No power was lost to LADWP pump stations during the fire, and water supply remained strong to the area. Water pressure in the system was lost due to unprecedented and extreme water demand to fight the wildfire without aerial support. This impacted our ability to refill the three water tanks supplying the Palisades and a low percentage of hydrants in the area, mostly in the higher elevations. As soon as LADWP identified the risk of losing water in the tanks and water pressure in the system, we immediately deployed potable water tankers to sustain support for firefighting efforts."

https://www.nbcnews.com/weather/wildfires/california-fire-water-tanks-went-dry-palisades-rcna186860

"Immense demand for water to fight the fast-moving Palisades Fire led all three of the community’s water tanks — and some fire hydrants — to temporarily dry up in the last 24 hours or so."

Cheers,
Tom

 

[DaveE]

Another interesting point is how wildly different all the estimates are to underground. Edison says 2 million, PG&E says 3 million, this article says 5 million per mile, etc.

Not that interesting or informative if you understand that California is a very large State with diverse geography and population distribution. PGE, SCE, SDGE, etc. all have pretty different service areas. Power distribution over the Mojave Desert isn't really comparable to the Northern Sierra Nevada. Plus what they say is pretty political since the utilities are regulated by the PUC.

 

[gary350]

Let it burn. It is natures way to burn the old to make way for the new we learned that in first year biology class. Why do people try to interfere with nature. TV said, this is a 50 year old forest it is full of dry dead material. If you want to live in the middle of a soon to burn dead brush pile you should have your own 30,000. water tank with your own fire hose.

 

[russ_watters]

Why do people try to interfere with nature.

Interfering with nature is a primary purpose of civilization!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Coming soon, mudslides. It is a familiar pattern to Californians.

When it finally does start to rain, the hills now barren of vegetation will be prone to mudslides. Some homes that survived the fire may well be destroyed by the mudslides that follow.

 

[Flyboy]

Eeeeyup.

And also part of the natural cycle there.

It’s not a disaster until people get in the way of nature.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Indirect death toll from the L.A. fires may end up in the thousands​

The toxic smoke from the fires, combined with disruption to the economy, health care system, and mental health may lead to thousands of deaths over the coming years.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/...om-the-l-a-fires-may-end-up-in-the-thousands/

There is also significant concern about water contamination from all the toxic materials.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Looking at that photo, I am reminded of my childhood when the air quality in LA was at its worst. It was reported that just living in some areas of the LA basin was equivalent to smoking a pack of cigarettes a day; areas such as the San Fernando valley, and along the San Gabriel Mountains where the smog would often concentrate due to the winds. There were many days when it was too dangerous to go outside and play.

There were days when just the regular old smog was almost as bad as what you see in the photo above. One day I was standing on the roof of our five-story apartment and couldn't see the foothill less than a quarter mile away because the smog was so thick.

Generally, the air quality has dramatically improved since then thanks to emissions regulations.

 

[DaveE]

‘It all ended in a second’: Thousands of low-income and immigrant workers lost jobs in LA fires​

...“There’s no communities so there’s no car wash. There’s nothing more to explain. No business, no income”...
https://calmatters.org/environment/wildfires/2025/01/la-fires-workers-lost-jobs/

For Whom the Bell Tolls
by John Donne

No man is an island,
Entire of itself.
Each is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main.
If a clod be washed away by the sea,
Europe is the less.
As well as if a promontory were.
As well as if a manor of thine own
Or of thine friend's were.
Each man's death diminishes me,
For I am involved in mankind.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee.