Paul, the oracular, miraculous octopus

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The discussion centers around Paul the octopus, renowned for accurately predicting the outcomes of World Cup soccer matches, including Germany's defeat to Spain in the semi-finals and Spain's eventual victory in the final. While many fans expressed frustration over his predictions, particularly in Germany, others defended the octopus's ability, suggesting that his success rate was comparable to random chance. The conversation also touches on the nature of predictions in sports and the skepticism surrounding them, with some participants questioning the significance of Paul's achievements. Additionally, the topic shifts to the broader implications of animal predictions, with references to other creatures like a Singapore parrot. The thread concludes with the news of Paul's death, prompting a mix of sadness and humor among participants, as they reflect on his legacy and the absurdity of attributing prophetic abilities to an octopus.
  • #31


arildno said:
The Iranian President says that Paul is a symbol of everything that is wrong in the world, a piece of Western propaganda and superstition.

In contrast to himself and the leadership of Iran, "that aspire...to human perfection, basing themselves in the love of all sacred values,"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...Mahmoud-Ahmadinejad-attacks-Octopus-Paul.html

Lol, that's great!

Reminds me of when a Chinese newspaper took a story in http://www.theonion.com/" to be an actual story:

Beijing's most popular newspaper has unwittingly republished a bogus story about U.S. Congress threats to skip town for Memphis or Charlotte unless Washington builds them a new Capitol building with a retractable dome.

The source? America's celebrated spoof tabloid, the Onion.

http://www.wired.com/culture/lifestyle/news/2002/06/53048
 
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  • #32
jostpuur said:
Lot of joking around here. Don't you think that that was pretty serious achievement from the octopus? A scientist should first try to find the truth, and joke about the phenomenon later.

No, I don't think this is a very serious achievement. If I flip eight coins in a row and they all land on heads should I bring my penny down to MIT so they can figure out how the hell it did that?
 
  • #33
Office_Shredder said:
No, I don't think this is a very serious achievement. If I flip eight coins in a row and they all land on heads should I bring my penny down to MIT so they can figure out how the hell it did that?

Why do you bash Paul's achievements like this?

What has he ever done to you?
 
  • #34
arildno said:
Why do you bash Paul's achievements like this?

What has he ever done to you?

I paid him $20,000 to pick Germany in the Spain-Germany game. This isn't because I wanted Germany to win; he already told me that Spain was going to win the game. I just wanted the betting to be skewed so I could make more money off my Spain bet.

Little dip cost me a hundred grand
 
  • #35
Your are all guilty of pseudo skepticism!

Office_Shredder said:
No, I don't think this is a very serious achievement. If I flip eight coins in a row and they all land on heads should I bring my penny down to MIT so they can figure out how the hell it did that?

The quality of miracle would depend on the way you achieve this coin flipping feat. I can tell at least two different ways to try to achieve it.

The way A: Take video camera. Record it when you flip a coin few thousand times. Somewhere in the sequence of flips there is going to be eight successive heads. Then take some editing software, cut the eight relevant flips out of the long video. In the end you have evidence that you flipped eight coins and they all gave heads.

The way B: Go to some (dumb) talent show. Tell the judges that you have capability to flip eight successive heads with a coin. Then start flipping, and keep hoping. In the end you should have amazed judges and audience applauding your abilities.

The biggest difference between the ways A and B is that the way A works, and the way B doesn't. If you try the way B, the hope will fail you just like it failed this guy too:

Isn't it clear, that the feat of Paul is closer to the way B than to the way A?
 
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  • #36
Only if the octopus was the only thing predicting world cup events. See, for example, that Singapore parrot. Most of them aren't famous because they don't get all their hits correct.

If you can document all the predictions of animals/random processes that could have become famous if they went 8/8 in the world and demonstrate that there aren't enough of them to allow for one to go 100%, then you're on to something.

And it's not just this world cup; there have surely been random processes picking sporting events for years, eventually one of them is bound to be very accurate
 
  • #37
Office_Shredder said:
Only if the octopus was the only thing predicting world cup events. See, for example, that Singapore parrot. Most of them aren't famous because they don't get all their hits correct.

If you can document all the predictions of animals/random processes that could have become famous if they went 8/8 in the world and demonstrate that there aren't enough of them to allow for one to go 100%, then you're on to something.

And it's not just this world cup; there have surely been random processes picking sporting events for years, eventually one of them is bound to be very accurate
You won't get your money back, Paul has eaten them. :smile:
 
  • #38
arildno said:
You won't get your money back, Paul has eaten them. :smile:

I sent the money to him in a box with the English flag painted on it. I think it's safe
 
  • #39
Office_Shredder said:
I sent the money to him in a box with the English flag painted on it. I think it's safe
I would think he looks upon such a box as the perfect portable toilet.

But, you're right, they'll be sort of safe in there..
 
  • #41
  • #42
They murdered him before he made a mistake, in order to preserve his mystic status.
 
  • #44
Poor Paul, he never saw it coming.
 
  • #45
I am suspicious, however. We were told Paul was dead once before. Of course, back then we were told he was he was a Walrus.
 
  • #46
dinner time!
 
  • #47
rootX said:
dinner time!
:eek:
 

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