Paul, the oracular, miraculous octopus!

  • Thread starter arildno
  • Start date
  • #26
747
4
So Paul correctly predicted the outcomes of 8 matches in a row. Does it have something to do with his 8 arms? :wink:
 
  • #27
536
35
This is not an octopus. This is f*ckin' Cthulhu!
 
  • #28
Office_Shredder
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
Gold Member
4,525
571
Apparently Paul has retired from the psychic profession

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/world-cup/story/_/id/5373013/ce/us/paul-octopus-retires-world-cup-predictions-going-8-8?cc=5901&ver=us [Broken]
 
Last edited by a moderator:
  • #29
2,111
18
Lot of joking around here. Don't you think that that was pretty serious achievement from the octopus? A scientist should first try to find the truth, and joke about the phenomenon later.

I wonder if there is a trick to this. For example, he could be somehow induced from to eat from the box of the team that was already favored by odds setters. I recall reading somewhere that for the last world cup series his prediction success rate was about 80 percent. How does that compare with just picking the favorite every time?

This is the only thing I could think of. But how reliable predictions could even the experts give to the game results?
 
  • #30
arildno
Science Advisor
Homework Helper
Gold Member
Dearly Missed
9,970
134
  • #31
lisab
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
Gold Member
1,887
617


The Iranian President says that Paul is a symbol of everything that is wrong in the world, a piece of Western propaganda and superstition.

In contrast to himself and the leadership of Iran, "that aspire...to human perfection, basing themselves in the love of all sacred values,"
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wor...Mahmoud-Ahmadinejad-attacks-Octopus-Paul.html

Lol, that's great!

Reminds me of when a Chinese newspaper took a story in http://www.theonion.com/" [Broken]to be an actual story:

Beijing's most popular newspaper has unwittingly republished a bogus story about U.S. Congress threats to skip town for Memphis or Charlotte unless Washington builds them a new Capitol building with a retractable dome.

The source? America's celebrated spoof tabloid, the Onion.

http://www.wired.com/culture/lifestyle/news/2002/06/53048 [Broken]
 
Last edited by a moderator:
  • #32
Office_Shredder
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
Gold Member
4,525
571
Lot of joking around here. Don't you think that that was pretty serious achievement from the octopus? A scientist should first try to find the truth, and joke about the phenomenon later.

No, I don't think this is a very serious achievement. If I flip eight coins in a row and they all land on heads should I bring my penny down to MIT so they can figure out how the hell it did that?
 
  • #33
arildno
Science Advisor
Homework Helper
Gold Member
Dearly Missed
9,970
134
No, I don't think this is a very serious achievement. If I flip eight coins in a row and they all land on heads should I bring my penny down to MIT so they can figure out how the hell it did that?

Why do you bash Paul's achievements like this?

What has he ever done to you?
 
  • #34
Office_Shredder
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
Gold Member
4,525
571
Why do you bash Paul's achievements like this?

What has he ever done to you?

I paid him $20,000 to pick Germany in the Spain-Germany game. This isn't because I wanted Germany to win; he already told me that Spain was going to win the game. I just wanted the betting to be skewed so I could make more money off my Spain bet.

Little dip cost me a hundred grand
 
  • #35
2,111
18
Your are all guilty of pseudo skepticism!

No, I don't think this is a very serious achievement. If I flip eight coins in a row and they all land on heads should I bring my penny down to MIT so they can figure out how the hell it did that?

The quality of miracle would depend on the way you achieve this coin flipping feat. I can tell at least two different ways to try to achieve it.

The way A: Take video camera. Record it when you flip a coin few thousand times. Somewhere in the sequence of flips there is going to be eight successive heads. Then take some editing software, cut the eight relevant flips out of the long video. In the end you have evidence that you flipped eight coins and they all gave heads.

The way B: Go to some (dumb) talent show. Tell the judges that you have capability to flip eight successive heads with a coin. Then start flipping, and keep hoping. In the end you should have amazed judges and audience applauding your abilities.

The biggest difference between the ways A and B is that the way A works, and the way B doesn't. If you try the way B, the hope will fail you just like it failed this guy too:
Isn't it clear, that the feat of Paul is closer to the way B than to the way A?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
  • #36
Office_Shredder
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
Gold Member
4,525
571
Only if the octopus was the only thing predicting world cup events. See, for example, that Singapore parrot. Most of them aren't famous because they don't get all their hits correct.

If you can document all the predictions of animals/random processes that could have become famous if they went 8/8 in the world and demonstrate that there aren't enough of them to allow for one to go 100%, then you're on to something.

And it's not just this world cup; there have surely been random processes picking sporting events for years, eventually one of them is bound to be very accurate
 
  • #37
arildno
Science Advisor
Homework Helper
Gold Member
Dearly Missed
9,970
134
Only if the octopus was the only thing predicting world cup events. See, for example, that Singapore parrot. Most of them aren't famous because they don't get all their hits correct.

If you can document all the predictions of animals/random processes that could have become famous if they went 8/8 in the world and demonstrate that there aren't enough of them to allow for one to go 100%, then you're on to something.

And it's not just this world cup; there have surely been random processes picking sporting events for years, eventually one of them is bound to be very accurate
You won't get your money back, Paul has eaten them. :smile:
 
  • #38
Office_Shredder
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
Gold Member
4,525
571
You won't get your money back, Paul has eaten them. :smile:

I sent the money to him in a box with the English flag painted on it. I think it's safe
 
  • #39
arildno
Science Advisor
Homework Helper
Gold Member
Dearly Missed
9,970
134
I sent the money to him in a box with the English flag painted on it. I think it's safe
I would think he looks upon such a box as the perfect portable toilet.

But, you're right, they'll be sort of safe in there..
 
  • #42
277
0
They murdered him before he made a mistake, in order to preserve his mystic status.
 
  • #44
Ivan Seeking
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
Gold Member
7,260
310
Poor Paul, he never saw it coming.
 
  • #45
Ivan Seeking
Staff Emeritus
Science Advisor
Gold Member
7,260
310
I am suspicious, however. We were told Paul was dead once before. Of course, back then we were told he was he was a Walrus.
 
  • #46
378
2
dinner time!
 
  • #47
Evo
Mentor
23,192
2,991

Related Threads on Paul, the oracular, miraculous octopus!

  • Last Post
Replies
3
Views
2K
  • Last Post
8
Replies
197
Views
26K
  • Last Post
Replies
10
Views
2K
  • Last Post
Replies
8
Views
2K
Replies
1
Views
3K
Z
Replies
5
Views
2K
  • Last Post
Replies
4
Views
4K
  • Last Post
Replies
15
Views
4K
Replies
5
Views
3K
  • Last Post
Replies
19
Views
2K
Top