Predicting Supernovas: Math Question and Mental Exercises | Expert Help Needed

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The discussion centers on the mathematical prediction of astronomical events, specifically the likelihood of IK Pegasi B and AN Ursae Majoris B undergoing nova and supernova events, respectively. The original poster, referred to as Doc, attempts to calculate the odds of these events occurring based on a prediction made 67 days in advance. Expert responses clarify that the odds cannot be simplified to a fraction based on time alone, emphasizing that the complexity of astronomical predictions requires a more nuanced understanding of statistical probabilities.

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K. Doc Holiday
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I suck at math. Help?

Any good at statistics? I could use your help. I like to make nearly impossible predictions but I suck at calculating odds of success.

On November 2nd, 2016 at 15:54 Mountain Standard Time I made an astronomy prediction on my Facebook page:

P.M.* January 9, 2017:
IK Pegasi B appears as a NOVA.

A.M.* January 16, 2017:
AN Ursae Majoris B appears as a type 1a SUPERNOVA. (Don't fly anywhere)

*Mountain Standard Time

I am not trying to upset anyone. I do mental exercises to expand my view of reality.

I made the prediction 67 days in advance = 1 in 67. Half day "P.M." should cut it in half = 1 in 134?
Or?

Current consensus is IK Pegasi B won't nova for 2 million years. So, is 1 in 2 million closer?

To the half day is 365 times 2 = 730 times 2 million = 1 in 1,460,000,000?

Since no one considers polar white dwarfs a possibility for a supernova event I assume it is fair to calculate the odds of that happening at zero?

Once again I apologize for asking silly questions and i appreciate your patience.

Sincerely
Doc

ps. Merry Christmas [emoji320][emoji318][emoji268][emoji6]
 
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K. Doc Holiday said:
I
I made the prediction 67 days in advance = 1 in 67.

Sorry, it doesn't work that way at all. 1 in 67 means a certain degree of surprise/uncertainty. Specifying how many days in advance doesn't quantify that way. I can predict that in 67 years it will rain somewhere in the world. I did it 67 days in advance, but the odds aren't 1 in 67.

For sure though, specifying something more in advance than specifying it right before it happens is more impressive, and might deserve more impressive odds, but it won't be 1 in 67.
 

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