Probability of a given mutation

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the probability of mutations in human DNA, specifically focusing on the number of possible single molecular mutations and the implications of these mutations over generations. The scope includes theoretical considerations and modeling of stochastic processes related to genetics.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory, Technical explanation, Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • One participant estimates that there are about 3.1 billion base pairs in the human genome, suggesting this number as a basis for the potential mutations.
  • Another participant emphasizes the staggering number of possible mutations due to the diploid nature of humans, which means they have two sets of genomes.
  • A participant expresses interest in modeling probabilities for successful mutations and sequences of mutations that lead to gradual changes over generations.
  • There is a discussion about the multiplicity of possible mutations for a specific base pair, noting that if each base pair could have multiple nucleotides, the number of potential mutations could be significantly higher than just the number of base pairs.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants generally agree on the vast number of potential mutations in the human genome, but there is no consensus on the exact implications or the specifics of how these mutations can be modeled or quantified.

Contextual Notes

The discussion does not resolve the complexities of how mutations compound or the specific probabilities associated with different types of mutations. There are also uncertainties regarding the number of possible pairings of nucleotides that could form a single base pair.

Who May Find This Useful

This discussion may be useful for individuals interested in genetics, stochastic modeling, and the probabilistic aspects of evolutionary biology.

Mr Peanut
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Consider the DNA of a human.

How many single, individual, molecular mutations are possible?
 
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ummm about 3.1 billion or so? :wink:
 
BoomBoom said:
ummm about 3.1 billion or so? :wink:

That's just how many basepairs there are in the human genome. The amount of mutations possible from this is simply staggering. We also have to remember that humans are diploid so we have TWO sets of the genome in us from our parents.

Why do you pose this question?
 
Why do you pose this question?

I'm am an armchair enthusiast (not a biologist). I like writing computer programs that model stochastic processes. Right now I am getting comfortable with probabilities for successful mutations. Next I need to get onboard with sequences of similar mutations that bring about gradual change over several generations.

ummm about 3.1 billion or so?

Each element of each base pair can have one of many nucleotides, so the mutiplicity of possible mutations for a specific basepair (one of the 3 billion), must itself compound the number of possibilities for a single mutation event. I don't know the number of possible parings of nucleitides that could in fact comprise a single base pair's multiplicity. If it were only binary we would already have 12 billion possibilities.
 

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