Probability of scoring a penalty

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SUMMARY

The probability of scoring a penalty kick is established at 2/5. When taking 10 penalties, the probability of scoring less than 50% (i.e., fewer than 5 successful penalties) is calculated using the binomial probability formula. The correct computation involves summing the probabilities of scoring 0 to 4 successful penalties, yielding an approximate probability of 0.633. This calculation has been verified as accurate.

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urbantrained
The probability that I take a penalty and score is 2/5.

If I take 10 penalties, what is the probability that I score less than 50% of them?
 
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My gut instinct tells me the answer should be:

(10!/4!6!)(3/5)6(2/5)4 + (10!/3!7!)(3/5)7(2/5)3 + (10!/2!8!)(3/5)8(2/5)2 + (10!/9!)(3/5)9 2/5 + (3/5)10

but I've not checked it throughly
 
Last edited:
The above gives an answer of ~0.633 which seems about right to me.
 
I've just done a quick check and the above is indeed the correct answer.
 

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