Probabilty of sequential deaths

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on the statistical modeling of the probability of blood relatives dying on significant dates, specifically Christmas and September 11, using the Gregorian and Julian calendars. The analysis begins with the Birthday Problem, illustrating the compound probability of individuals sharing birthdays. The user seeks to derive the odds of relatives dying on these significant dates, referencing the U.S. Social Security Period Life Table for mortality data. The conclusion indicates that while individual probabilities are low, the likelihood of at least one occurrence among a large population is nearly certain.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of basic probability concepts, including the Birthday Problem.
  • Familiarity with statistical modeling techniques.
  • Knowledge of the Gregorian and Julian calendars.
  • Access to the U.S. Social Security Period Life Table for mortality statistics.
NEXT STEPS
  • Explore advanced probability theory, focusing on compound events.
  • Research statistical modeling techniques for analyzing mortality data.
  • Learn about the implications of calendar systems on statistical analysis.
  • Investigate the use of life tables in demographic studies.
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Statisticians, data analysts, researchers in demography, and anyone interested in the statistical analysis of mortality patterns related to significant dates.

statistically_challe
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Hi all,

I hope today finds you well and in good spirits.

I'm trying to develope a statistical model and haven't done so in years. Any help is appreciated.

The Birthday problem goes something like this:

The question is:-

"How many people should be gathered in a room together before it is more likely than not that two of them share the same birthday?"

The compound probability of birthday 2 being different from birthday 1, and of birthday 3 being different from the other two, these being independent outcomes, is:-

(364/365)*(363/365) = 0.991796 or 99.2% chance that two people will not share the same birthday.

My question goes something like this:

My question is what are the odds of blood relatives dying on a personally or globally significant date (See below).

We observe two calendars in the family, Gregorian (Greek Orthodox) for religious purposes, and Julian (standard).

Helene, Jean, and Xenia are my aunts. Estelle and Edward are my mother and father.

****Name*****Birth *******Death**Age*Date Sign.*Calendar
1999 Helene--01 Oct 1911--09 Jan 1999-88-Christmas---Gregorian

2000 Jean*---07 Sep 1913--26 Dec 2000-87-Christmas--Julian

2001 Estelle--31 May 1925--28 Dec 2001-76-Christmas--Julian

2002 None

2003 None

2004 None

2005 Xenia----31 Dec 1917--11 Sep 2005-88-9/11--------Julian

2006 Edward--15 May 1921--07 Sep 2006-85-Sister Jean--Julian
---------------------------------------------Birthday*

At this point I have the U.S. Social Security Period Life Table.
http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html

Discounting for illness, which most of us die from, I'd like to derive the "odds".

Even pieces of the model would be helpful. Any help is appreciated.



Statictically Challenged
 
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The problem is that it's easy to find connections after the fact. Assuming a 365-day year with a fixed calendar, the chance that any three given people would die on Christmas is 1/365^3. The chance that exactly three out of five given people would die on Christmas on one of two calendars is roughly 80/365^3. The chance that at least three out of five given people would die on a 'significant day' in one of two calendars is higher yet. The chance that, out of the six billion plus people in the world, at least one would have three or more relatives die on a 'significant day' in one of two calendars is essentially 100%.