Hi all,(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

I hope today finds you well and in good spirits.

I'm trying to develope a statistical model and haven't done so in years. Any help is appreciated.

The Birthday problem goes something like this:

The question is:-

"How many people should be gathered in a room together before it is more likely than not that two of them share the same birthday?"

The compound probability of birthday 2 being different from birthday 1, and of birthday 3 being different from the other two, these being independent outcomes, is:-

(364/365)*(363/365) = 0.991796 or 99.2% chance that two people will not share the same birthday.

My question goes something like this:

My question is what are the odds of blood relatives dying on a personally or globally significant date (See below).

We observe two calendars in the family, Gregorian (Greek Orthodox) for religious purposes, and Julian (standard).

Helene, Jean, and Xenia are my aunts. Estelle and Edward are my mother and father.

****Name*****Birth *******Death**Age*Date Sign.*Calendar

1999 Helene--01 Oct 1911--09 Jan 1999-88-Christmas---Gregorian

2000 Jean*---07 Sep 1913--26 Dec 2000-87-Christmas--Julian

2001 Estelle--31 May 1925--28 Dec 2001-76-Christmas--Julian

2002 None

2003 None

2004 None

2005 Xenia----31 Dec 1917--11 Sep 2005-88-9/11--------Julian

2006 Edward--15 May 1921--07 Sep 2006-85-Sister Jean--Julian

---------------------------------------------Birthday*

At this point I have the U.S. Social Security Period Life Table.

http://www.ssa.gov/OACT/STATS/table4c6.html

Discounting for illness, which most of us die from, I'd like to derive the "odds".

Even pieces of the model would be helpful. Any help is appreciated.

Best regards,

Statictically Challenged

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# Probabilty of sequential deaths

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