Problem related to the compound Poisson process (?)

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on a continuous time process involving two alternating events, A and B, each with exponentially distributed durations and distinct rate constants. The user, Gabriel, seeks to determine the expected number of event pairs occurring within a specified time interval. A suggestion was made to consider the model as a "continuous time Markov process," which may provide the necessary framework for analysis. Gabriel is encouraged to explore results related to expected transition events in Markov chains for further insights.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of continuous time Markov processes
  • Knowledge of exponential distributions and rate constants
  • Familiarity with event modeling and transition events
  • Basic concepts of stochastic processes
NEXT STEPS
  • Research "continuous time Markov process" for foundational knowledge
  • Investigate "expected number of transitions in Markov chains" for relevant results
  • Explore "exponential distribution properties" to understand event durations
  • Examine "stochastic modeling techniques" for advanced analysis methods
USEFUL FOR

Mathematicians, statisticians, and researchers in stochastic processes or event-driven modeling who are analyzing continuous time systems and seeking to understand transition dynamics in Markov processes.

gabe_rosser
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Dear all,

I wonder if anyone has come across this problem before and could point me to a relevant ref or tell me what terms I might search for:

I am interested in a continuous time process in which two alternating events (call them A and B) occur. Each event has an exponentially distributed duration, with different rate constants. They occur consecutively and exclusively: A immediately follows B and vice-versa, with no overlapping or gaps.

Our experiment always starts with A. After an exponentially distributed waiting time, B occurs. After a second time wait, exponentially distributed but with different rate constant, A occurs again, etc.

I am seeking the expected number of events (or pairs of events) that occur in a given time interval.

I have attempted this myself, but my approach became complicated quite rapidly so I thought I would check here first to see if anyone had come across this before.

Thanks, and apologies for the lengthy description.

Gabriel
 
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I think the proper terminology for your model is a "continuous time Markov process". Look it up and see if that fits. If not, let us know.
 
Thanks for the suggestion. I should have thought to think of it as a Markov process.

I'm still not sure how to use this description to get at my desired result, however. Does anyone know of any results relating to the expected number of transition events for a given Markov chain? I'll look into this as well and post if I find anything useful.
 

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