Jilang said:
OK let's leave out the negative probabilities then. Working through the example in the link you could consider that each of the eight scenarios are equally likely for the particle up until the point it's measured. At that point scenarios (1) and (8) are wiped out by the process of measurement as they can never be measured with that result. The probability of measuring a coincidence would then be 6x.333/8. Which is 0.25.
That doesn't work. It's quite easy to see if we use a binary representation in "Bell's ABC":
(and excludes decimal 0 & 7 because this will never ever work)
From this picture we see two groups that are XOR mirrored, i.e. 001 XOR 111 = 110 (
or decimal 1 XOR 7 = 6). This means the "Yellow Group" above is an inverted mirror of the "Purple Group", regarding combinations and "hits".
To get a value like 25% we need one "hit" (
i.e. same binary value) and three "misses" (
i.e. different binary value). Naturally we must make
four runs to get a value like 25%, and since we don't know the settings in advance, these four combinations must be able to handle all three AB, AC & BC settings.
Let's start by picking the first three in order, i.e. decimal 1 to 3. Immediately we see that there are no problems in the "Yellow Group", it's safe regarding all possible combinations, i.e. one "hit" and two "misses" for all three AB, AC & BC settings.
So let's pick the forth combination.
Now problems start. We know we can't pick another value from the "Yellow Group", since we are then guaranteed to get doublets on "hits" (2/4 = 50%). And we know that the "Purple Group" is an inverted mirror regarding combinations, and that it doesn't matter if it's 11 or 00, both are "hits".
Not looking good...
Let's check to be sure: Our fourth combination, decimal 4, fail for setting BC with "hits" in both 3 & 4.
Let's try decimal 5 as our fourth combination: This fails as well, but now for setting AC with "hits" in both 2 & 5.
Let's try decimal 6 as our fourth combination: This fails as well, but now for setting AB with "hits" in both 1 & 6.
No options left = impossible!
(I believe you could make a gifted 10-yearold understand this quite simple logic, and this makes it even more astonishing that a physics professor doesn't...)