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fresh_42 said:This question is in the same category as whether people should stop taking part in the lottery.
The scientific answer was the one my mentor used to give: "Lottery is a special tax for idiots."
My friend had the economic reply: "The chances are low but so is the fee, so the small amount of costs justifies the risk."
Why is this the same? Because problems with expected solutions in a reasonable amount of time won't bring you the Nobel prize!
This is well put. I would add that all the physicists I know tend to have had some past successes with their aesthetic preferences on past problems, so we tend to have confidence that the same aesthetic preferences will work on future problems.
I also think I've learned to pick problems well suited to my aesthetic preferences, but this requires self-awareness both in what my preferences are and what kinds of problems they are well suited to. Hint: I don't pick problems where others with similar preferences and greater abilities have already been working hard and long and coming up empty. I pick problems where my preferences and approach are considerably different from what's been done and is not working well.