Seeing 169 Everywhere: Is It Just a Coincidence?

[FlexGunship]

I would disagree with that in principle alone. There are 900 3-digit numbers, but only 90 2-digit numbers. So, if you ONE 3-digit number for every TEN 2-digit numbers, then the relationship still holds true. Let's say you take ONLY the case of the leading digit being a "1."

30% * 900 * 1/10 = 30% * 90 * 1/1

Right?

It's just a thought. Specifics really aren't necessary.

 

[DaveC426913]

I would disagree with that in principle alone. There are 900 3-digit numbers, but only 90 2-digit numbers. So, if you ONE 3-digit number for every TEN 2-digit numbers, then the relationship still holds true. Let's say you take ONLY the case of the leading digit being a "1."

30% * 900 * 1/10 = 30% * 90 * 1/1

Right?

It's just a thought. Specifics really aren't necessary.

But they're not evenly distributed in manifestation.

For starters, we're talking about seeing numbers.

Every street has address numbers in the 1-9 range too many in fact to make them significant. Almost all streets have numbers from 10-99 on them. Most streets have 100-999 on them. Few streets have 1000 to 9999 on them.

Dollar numbers in the front section of the newspaper: single digits will be too numerous to count. Double digits will be common. Triple digits will be rare enough that individual ones might be significant if repeated. I'll bet you'll have a tough time finding more than a couple of four-digit numbers.

Street names: I live on Third Street. Our town goes up to Fortieth street. How many One Hundredth Streets do you think there are in the whole world?

 

[FlexGunship]

But they're not evenly distributed in manifestation.

For starters, we're talking about seeing numbers.

Every street has address numbers in the 1-9 range too many in fact to make them significant. Almost all streets have numbers from 10-99 on them. Most streets have 100-999 on them. Few streets have 1000 to 9999 on them.

Dollar numbers in the front section of the newspaper: single digits will be too numerous to count. Double digits will be common. Triple digits will be rare enough that individual ones might be significant if repeated. I'll bet you'll have a tough time finding more than a couple of four-digit numbers.

Street names: I live on Third Street. Our town goes up to Fortieth street. How many One Hundredth Streets do you think there are in the whole world?

Okay, I was concerned that this would be a problem. I suggest you actually read Benford's Law and look at examples. A page from the phone book would be an ideal example. For each individual in the phone book, write down the first digit of their address. If their address is 4 Third Street, then use 4. If their address is 456 Thirty-Second Ave, then use 4. If one guy on the page has the address 3628374382929484575x10^34 Smith Street, use 3.

Following this process you would find that 30% start with 1, about 17% start with 2... etc...

 

[FlexGunship]

Oh, wait... your gripe was with my choice of number, not with my application of Benford's Law. Gotcha. Yes; you're right. I was suggesting that he change to a random number whose first digit is the same first digit as his "significant" number.

My apologies for the confusion. I stand corrected.

Use 142 instead of 42 then.

You should notice it as often as 169 in casual situations.

 

[DaveC426913]

Okay, I was concerned that this would be a problem. I suggest you actually read Benford's Law and ...

...

Oh, wait... your gripe was with my choice of number, not with my application of Benford's Law.

Use 142 instead of 42 then.

You should notice it as often as 169 in casual situations.