Statistical variation of a flipped coin

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on the statistical variation of a flipped coin, specifically addressing the expected number of heads when a coin is flipped N times. The formula presented is Number of heads = N/2 + Δn, where Δn represents statistical variation. The expected variation is clarified as Δn/N = 1/(2√N), with the standard deviation being √N/2. The conversation also touches on the interpretation of polling data, specifically when candidates' numbers differ by less than 3%, indicating a statistical dead heat.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of basic statistics concepts, including expected value and standard deviation.
  • Familiarity with the formula for statistical variation in coin flips.
  • Knowledge of polling data interpretation and statistical significance.
  • Basic algebra skills to solve equations involving N.
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the concept of standard deviation in statistics.
  • Learn how to calculate expected values in probability distributions.
  • Research the implications of statistical significance in polling data.
  • Practice solving equations involving statistical variation and sample sizes.
USEFUL FOR

This discussion is beneficial for students in introductory statistics or physics courses, educators teaching statistical concepts, and anyone interested in understanding polling data and statistical analysis.

SciSteve
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I found a statistics question and am wondering how its figured out, the way its worded is hard to understand what everything means. anyhow..

If a coin is flipped N times, one expects to get "heads" roughly half the time. More precisely, Number of heads=N/2+Δn where Δn is the statistical variation. Typically, one expects Δn/N≈1/2√N
thats 2 multiplied by square root of N in denominator, and the question proceeds...
You sometimes see a news report of a pole asking who would be the best president. The report typically says that if two candidates' numbers differ by less than 3%, then it is a "statistical dead heat." If this means the difference is less than would be expected from the statistical variation, how many people were asked the question?

Any help with some explanation would be greatly appreciated thanks in advance.
 
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What level and course are you doing Steve?

One part of the question is pretty loosley worded and makes me think it might be aimed at someone who has only basic knowlegde of statistics.

The statement "Typically, one expects Δn/N≈1/2√N" is not quite correct as the variation can be either positive or negative and the expected value is exactly zero ("expected value" has a definite menaing in statistics). It's actually the standard deviation (stdev) that is equal to sqrt(N)/2 and therefore stdev/N = 1/(2 sqrt(N)).

Anyway that aside, the question is basically just asking you this. For what value of N is sqrt(N)/2 equal to 3% of N. Hopefully you can make an equation out of that and solve for N.
 
its actually for an intro level physics course, and I've never took statistics so this stuff kinda confuses me.
 

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