Strange virus kills 30 people in Ukraine.

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the emergence of a new virus in Ukraine that has resulted in fatalities. Participants explore the frequency of new diseases appearing globally, the implications of improved detection methods, and the historical context of viral outbreaks. The conversation touches on various viruses, including H1N1, and the public's reaction to emerging health threats.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants suggest that the increase in reported diseases may be due to improved detection rather than a true increase in new viruses.
  • Others argue that while detection has improved, the mechanisms of disease emergence may still be the same, with population growth potentially leading to more opportunities for viruses to jump to humans.
  • There is a contention regarding the characterization of swine flu as "new," with some asserting it is not a new virus.
  • Concerns are raised about the public's panic in response to new viruses, with comparisons made to the relatively low mortality of past outbreaks like SARS.
  • Participants express uncertainty about the identity of the virus in Ukraine, noting that it has been confirmed to be different from H1N1 but lacking further clarity.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on whether the emergence of new viruses is a result of improved detection or a genuine increase in new pathogens. There are differing views on the implications of these outbreaks and the public's reaction to them.

Contextual Notes

Some statements reflect assumptions about the relationship between population dynamics and virus emergence, but these assumptions are not universally accepted among participants. The discussion also highlights the uncertainty surrounding the classification and identification of the virus in question.

The_Absolute
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http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/swineflu/news/oct3009ukraine.html

First the west nile virus, then SARS, bird flu, then the swine flu, and now this strange virus. It seems that there is a new type of deadly disease popping up somewhere in the world every few years. More so in the past decade than any other point in all of history. Ukrainian medical officials have confirmed that this virus is not the H1N1 "swine" flu virus. The identity of the virus is still unclear.

Where are all these diseases coming from? Why so many so quick? What the heck is going on?! What's next?
 
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My bet is that nothing qualitatively new happens, we are just much better at detecting. Things that 30 years ago would slip as unexplained/separated now are getting recognized.
 
Borek said:
My bet is that nothing qualitatively new happens, we are just much better at detecting. Things that 30 years ago would slip as unexplained/separated now are getting recognized.

Not like this...
 
Not sure about the others but swine flu certainly isn't new.
 
The_Absolute said:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/swineflu/news/oct3009ukraine.html

First the west nile virus, then SARS, bird flu, then the swine flu, and now this strange virus. It seems that there is a new type of deadly disease popping up somewhere in the world every few years. More so in the past decade than any other point in all of history. Ukrainian medical officials have confirmed that this virus is not the H1N1 "swine" flu virus. The identity of the virus is still unclear.

Where are all these diseases coming from? Why so many so quick? What the heck is going on?! What's next?

Read up on the virial theorem. :smile:
 
The_Absolute said:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/swineflu/news/oct3009ukraine.html

First the west nile virus, then SARS, bird flu, then the swine flu, and now this strange virus. It seems that there is a new type of deadly disease popping up somewhere in the world every few years. More so in the past decade than any other point in all of history. Ukrainian medical officials have confirmed that this virus is not the H1N1 "swine" flu virus. The identity of the virus is still unclear.

Where are all these diseases coming from? Why so many so quick? What the heck is going on?! What's next?

Borek's correct that emerging diseases are noticed much earlier now, but http://www.cdc.gov/eid/content/15/11/1713.htm" . Sure, humans have always been mobile, but planes, trains, ships, and cars make moving around the globe much quicker than it used to be.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
I have not mentioned it to not complicate the picture :smile:

Besides, just because the pathogens are spread faster doesn't mean they appear more frequently. Could be they do - larger population means more occasions for virus to 'jump' to humans and more occasions to evolve - but I still think we are talking about the same mechanisms that existed earlier, no qualitative, only quantitative changes.
 
russ_watters said:
Not sure about the others but swine flu certainly isn't new.

Apparently, this virus in Ukraine is NOT the H1N1 "swine" flu virus. It is an entirely different virus all together. Which has me very concerned.
 
The_Absolute said:
Apparently, this virus in Ukraine is NOT the H1N1 "swine" flu virus. It is an entirely different virus all together.
According to the article, that is nowhere near confirmed. But you did incorrectly state that swine flu was "new".
Which has me very concerned.
Why? Even if that virus is new, new viruses aren't new. So what is the big deal? Take SARS for example. It infected some 8,000 people and killed 774 over two years. That's grossly out of proportion to the panic it caused. More people die in car accidents every week in the US than that!
 
  • #10
russ_watters said:
According to the article, that is nowhere near confirmed. But you did incorrectly state that swine flu was "new". Why? Even if that virus is new, new viruses aren't new. So what is the big deal? Take SARS for example. It infected some 8,000 people and killed 774 over two years. That's grossly out of proportion to the panic it caused. More people die in car accidents every week in the US than that!

It's fear of the unknown - a lack of control.
 
  • #11
russ_watters said:
Even if that virus is new, new viruses aren't new.

I agree with the general sentiment of your post - but you've lost me here :bugeye:
 
  • #12
The_Absolute said:
http://www.cidrap.umn.edu/cidrap/content/influenza/swineflu/news/oct3009ukraine.html

First the west nile virus, then SARS, bird flu, then the swine flu, and now this strange virus. It seems that there is a new type of deadly disease popping up somewhere in the world every few years. More so in the past decade than any other point in all of history. Ukrainian medical officials have confirmed that this virus is not the H1N1 "swine" flu virus. The identity of the virus is still unclear.

Where are all these diseases coming from? Why so many so quick? What the heck is going on?! What's next?
I see no evidence that the outbreak is anything other than H1N1. Closed.
 

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