Sunk Costs and Optimal Bidding Strategy for an Authentic $100 Bill Auction

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on optimal bidding strategies in a unique auction scenario involving an authentic $100 bill. Participants must consider sunk costs, as the second-highest bidder must pay their last bid regardless of winning. The optimal strategy, as proposed by MarkFL, involves analyzing the potential outcomes of continuing to bid versus accepting the current bid. The key takeaway is that bidders should focus on minimizing losses while maximizing potential gains, particularly when faced with the risk of incurring costs from losing bids.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of auction theory and bidding strategies
  • Familiarity with the concept of sunk costs in economics
  • Knowledge of game theory principles
  • Basic mathematical reasoning for evaluating potential outcomes
NEXT STEPS
  • Research advanced auction theory and its applications in economics
  • Study game theory strategies, particularly non-dominated strategies
  • Explore real-world examples of bidding wars and their outcomes
  • Learn about behavioral economics and how it influences bidding behavior
USEFUL FOR

This discussion is beneficial for economics students, auction participants, game theorists, and anyone interested in strategic decision-making in competitive environments.

Jameson
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You are in an economics class where the topic of the day's lecture on "sunk costs" so to demonstrate your professor has a short auction. The item available is an authentic \$100 bill, worth \$100 current dollars of course. The bidding starts at \$1 and must increase by at least \$1 over the previous bid.

There is one extra rule though: If you are the highest bidder you win the money but if you are the second highest bidder you must pay your losing bid nevertheless.

You and a group of students begin the bidding and quickly it comes down to you and one other person. He bids \$98, you bid \$99 and he bids \$100.

What is the best strategy from this point on? Try to find a way to describe your optimal decision from this point on and assuming your opponent can make a large range of choices as well from this point on.

(Note: this POTW is a little different so to receive recognition for this problem your strategy must be non-dominated by another possible strategy and you must give your reasoning)
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No one answered the problem in the way I intended, but since the goal of the situation (to win the most money or lose the least amount of money) might not be clear I will award MarkFL credit for this week's POTW.

1) MarkFL

Here is my solution:
You last bid \$99 so you stand to lose \$99. If you can lose less then this or make a profit from this point on then you are in a better situation. Your next minimum possible bid is \$101, which is a net of -\$1 if you win the auction, so this is clearly better than losing \$99.

In fact you can continue to increase the bid amount until \$199 and not lose money compared with your current situation. If you bid \$200 or more then you lose even more money, so the max bid you should make from here is \$199.
 

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