The do nothing method of finance, would it work?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the concept of a "do nothing" approach to economic policy, particularly in the context of financial crises and government intervention. Participants explore historical examples, such as the New Deal and Reaganomics, and debate the implications of minimal government involvement in economic recovery.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Historical

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants argue that increased federal spending is beneficial during periods of low private demand, citing historical examples like the New Deal.
  • Others contend that the New Deal did not end the Great Depression but alleviated it, questioning the effectiveness of such interventions.
  • A participant raises the idea that a "do nothing" plan has not been adequately tested, suggesting that past economic cycles may not provide clear guidance on its potential success.
  • Concerns are expressed about the definition of a "do nothing" plan, with some suggesting it implies a laissez-faire approach where the government refrains from intervening in the economy.
  • Reaganomics is discussed as a historical example of minimal government intervention, with mixed opinions on its long-term effects on economic growth.
  • Participants highlight the complexity of economic recovery, noting that GDP is only one measure and that employment levels during the Great Depression were also significant.
  • Some participants question whether a "do nothing" strategy could work in a crisis, particularly in comparison to libertarian views on economic management.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

There is no consensus on the effectiveness of a "do nothing" approach. Participants express differing views on historical economic policies and their outcomes, indicating a range of competing perspectives on government intervention in the economy.

Contextual Notes

Participants reference various historical economic contexts, such as the Great Depression and the Reagan era, but the discussion remains open-ended regarding the implications of these examples for current economic strategies.

Would the do nothing financial model work?

  • The socialist model is better (bail outs of banks and or nationalisation of banks).

    Votes: 0 0.0%

  • Total voters
    12
  • Poll closed .
  • #31
drankin said:
Is saving money a bad thing to do right now?
Why does saving money jeopardize the recovery?
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=289267

Basically, it sounds like you are saying that the feds should spend our money because the public is too dumb to spend it themselves?
I said no such thing.
 
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  • #32
Gokul43201 said:
Why does saving money jeopardize the recovery?
https://www.physicsforums.com/showthread.php?t=289267


I said no such thing.

No, you didn't, and I don't mean to put words in your mouth. But is this the attitude of Congress and the current administration? If the voting public had their say, there wouldn't be a stimulus package that looked anything like what is being pushed through right now. Let's just stick with cutting taxes and let the market figure itself out.
 
  • #33
drankin said:
Let's just stick with cutting taxes and let the market figure itself out.
That was mostly what the Bush policy was. And we've had possibly the poorest 8-year span of economic activity under Bush than any time since WW2.

And don't forget, we tried the tax rebate business last year. Fat lot of good that did!

Here's a link to all the analysis from Mark Zandi, McCain's economic adviser: http://www.economy.com/mark-zandi/default.asp?src=economy_homepage

An excerpt from the Jan 21 report:
Zandi said:
The top priority should be the implementation of a large fiscal stimulus package. The House Democratic plan proposed in mid-January includes both increases in government spending and tax cuts. The plan costs approximately $825 billion, equal to 5.5% of the nation's gross domestic product. This is not as costly as the public works projects of the 1930s, but it is costlier than the 3% of GDP spent to stimulate the economy during the tough downturn in the early 1980s. The cost of the current package would thus be consistent with expectations regarding the severity of this downturn. At 5.5% of GDP, the stimulus would also be about enough to ensure the economy stops contracting by the end of 2009 and that GDP returns to its prerecession peak by the end of 2010—reasonable goals.

The mix of tax cuts and spending increases in the stimulus package is designed to provide both quick relief and a substantial boost to the struggling economy. The tax cuts will not pack a big economic punch, as some of the money will be saved and some used to repay debt, but they can be implemented quickly. Aid to state and local governments will not lift the economy, but it will forestall cuts in programs and payrolls that many governments would be forced to make to meet their states' constitutional obligations to balance their budgets. Infrastructure spending will not help the economy quickly, as it will take time to get even "shovel-ready" projects going, but it will provide a significant economic boost. Because the economy's problems are not expected to abate soon, this spending will be especially helpful this time next year.

But hey, what do economists know?
 
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  • #34
Gokul43201 said:
That was mostly what the Bush policy was. And we've had possibly the poorest 8-year span of economic activity under Bush than any time since WW2...
Upon what do you base that statement? The looming (at the time) credit instability? Wage disparity? Surely not the macroeconomic conditions:

US GDP 2000-2008.
chxl=0:|2000|2001|2002|2003|2004|2005|2006|2007|2008|1:&chxp=&chxr=1,0.00,5.00&chxs=&chg=12.5,10.png

http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?c=us&v=66
For comparison, US historic GDP average "www.ers.usda.gov/Data/macroeconomics/Data/HistoricalRealGDPValues.xls"[/URL]

GDP growth back to '47 by quarters:
[ATTACH=full]200533[/ATTACH]

US Unemployment 2000 to 2008
[ATTACH=full]196656[/ATTACH]
[url]http://www.indexmundi.com/g/g.aspx?v=74&c=us&l=en[/url]
 

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  • #35
Gokul43201 said:
But hey, what do economists know?

They know enough to get by, and probably more than those on Wall street, but not enough to predict the future. I saw an interesting program on the credit crunch and why it happened, and the bull bear models of economics and herd mentality lead to it. It seems to me the people most able to predict the stock market, predict that it is fundamentally unpredictable, but there are certain indicators that give hints.
 

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