The reputation of Macroeconomics has gotten so bad...

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  • #1
BWV
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that now it is being compared to String Theory, becoming 'mathematical pseudoscience'

(Romer just won the Nobel Prize in Economics)

https://crimfi.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/the_trouble_with_macroeconomics.pdf

The evolution of macroeconomics mirrors developments in string theory from physics, which suggests that they are examples of a general failure mode of for fields of science that rely on mathematical theory in which facts can end up being subordinated to the theoretical preferences of revered leaders. The larger concern is that macroeconomic pseudoscience is undermining the norms of science throughout economics. If so, all of the policy domains that economics touches could lose the accumulation of useful knowledge that characteristic of true science, the greatest human invention.
 

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  • #2
Vanadium 50
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If you took all the economists in Washington DC and placed them end to end, they still wouldn't reach a conclusion.
 
  • #3
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"To prove that Wall Street is an early omen of movements still to come in GNP, commentators quote economic studies alleging that market downturns predicted four out of the last five recessions. That is an understatement. Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties." ~ Paul Samuelson
 
  • #4
BWV
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Ok but no reasonable person should expect macroeconomics to predict recessions - after all the prediction itself, if believed by enough people, would be sufficient in itself to cause a recession.
 
  • #5
Matterwave
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Shots fired at both string theory and macroeconomics...that's efficient.
 
  • #6
russ_watters
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that now it is being compared to String Theory, becoming 'mathematical pseudoscience'
But still above sociology I guess?
 
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  • #7
StatGuy2000
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But still above sociology I guess?
Since you brought up sociology, consider the following blog entry from physicist-turned-statistician (and science blogger) Cosma Shalizi from CMU: "On the Superiority of Sociology to String Theory".

http://bactra.org/weblog/445.html

Note his quote about an (physics) adviser of a friend of his who made the following memorable put-downs:

"I could go crazy tomorrow and find an appointment in the sociology department."

"I don't want to criticize you, but this is the way superstring people think."
 

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