The reputation of Macroeconomics has gotten so bad....

  • Thread starter Thread starter BWV
  • Start date Start date
Click For Summary

Discussion Overview

The discussion centers on the reputation and validity of macroeconomics, drawing parallels to string theory in physics and exploring perceptions of both fields as potentially lacking empirical grounding. Participants engage in a critique of macroeconomic predictions and the implications of theoretical frameworks in economics.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Conceptual clarification
  • Exploratory

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants suggest that macroeconomics is being likened to string theory, indicating a perception of both as 'mathematical pseudoscience' that prioritizes theoretical preferences over empirical evidence.
  • One participant humorously remarks on the inability of economists in Washington DC to reach a consensus, implying a critique of the field's effectiveness.
  • A quote from Paul Samuelson is presented, highlighting the irony in Wall Street's predictive capabilities regarding recessions, suggesting that its predictions are often flawed.
  • Another participant argues that expecting macroeconomics to predict recessions is unreasonable, as the act of prediction itself could influence economic outcomes.
  • There is a humorous acknowledgment of the critique aimed at both string theory and macroeconomics, suggesting a shared criticism of their scientific rigor.
  • One participant questions the relative standing of macroeconomics compared to sociology, referencing a blog post that critiques string theory and suggests sociology may have more empirical grounding.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views on the credibility of macroeconomics and its predictive power, with no consensus reached on the validity of the comparisons made to string theory or the overall effectiveness of macroeconomic theories.

Contextual Notes

Limitations in the discussion include assumptions about the nature of predictions in economics and the definitions of 'pseudoscience' as applied to both macroeconomics and string theory. The discussion does not resolve the complexities involved in evaluating these fields.

BWV
Messages
1,667
Reaction score
2,012
that now it is being compared to String Theory, becoming 'mathematical pseudoscience'

(Romer just won the Nobel Prize in Economics)

https://crimfi.files.wordpress.com/2016/09/the_trouble_with_macroeconomics.pdf

The evolution of macroeconomics mirrors developments in string theory from physics, which suggests that they are examples of a general failure mode of for fields of science that rely on mathematical theory in which facts can end up being subordinated to the theoretical preferences of revered leaders. The larger concern is that macroeconomic pseudoscience is undermining the norms of science throughout economics. If so, all of the policy domains that economics touches could lose the accumulation of useful knowledge that characteristic of true science, the greatest human invention.
 
Physics news on Phys.org
If you took all the economists in Washington DC and placed them end to end, they still wouldn't reach a conclusion.
 
  • Like
Likes   Reactions: Astronuc, Mondayman and russ_watters
"To prove that Wall Street is an early omen of movements still to come in GNP, commentators quote economic studies alleging that market downturns predicted four out of the last five recessions. That is an understatement. Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties." ~ Paul Samuelson
 
  • Like
Likes   Reactions: Ryan_m_b
Ok but no reasonable person should expect macroeconomics to predict recessions - after all the prediction itself, if believed by enough people, would be sufficient in itself to cause a recession.
 
  • Like
Likes   Reactions: russ_watters
Shots fired at both string theory and macroeconomics...that's efficient.
 
BWV said:
that now it is being compared to String Theory, becoming 'mathematical pseudoscience'
But still above sociology I guess?
 
  • Like
Likes   Reactions: BWV
russ_watters said:
But still above sociology I guess?

Since you brought up sociology, consider the following blog entry from physicist-turned-statistician (and science blogger) Cosma Shalizi from CMU: "On the Superiority of Sociology to String Theory".

http://bactra.org/weblog/445.html

Note his quote about an (physics) adviser of a friend of his who made the following memorable put-downs:

"I could go crazy tomorrow and find an appointment in the sociology department."

"I don't want to criticize you, but this is the way superstring people think."
 
  • Like
Likes   Reactions: Ryan_m_b

Similar threads

Graduate Shinichi Mochizuki's ABC Conjecture and Replication Crisis in Maths
  • · Replies 33 ·
2
Replies
33
Views
9K
Graduate Will Superstring Theory Win a Nobel Prize by 2020?
  • · Replies 5 ·
Replies
5
Views
3K
Graduate Are New Ideas Important in Physics and Astronomy?
  • · Replies 6 ·
Replies
6
Views
3K
Mathematica This Week's Finds in Mathematical Physics (Week 255)
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
3K
So you want to be a scientist in industry
  • · Replies 38 ·
2
Replies
38
Views
26K
“The Demon Haunted World”, by Carl Sagan review
  • · Replies 5 ·
Replies
5
Views
7K
Mathematica This Week's Finds in Mathematical Physics (Week 266)
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
4K