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Long-Run Effects
Over the long run, some of those who benefit from the tax exclusion may also bear some of its cost. The tax exclusion raises health care costs for everyone, including those who directly benefit from the subsidy. As a result, it exacerbates the problems of the uninsured and raises insurance costs for the insured. The revenue losses that result from the exclusion contribute to higher deficits, higher taxes, or reduced government services, which ultimately affect everyone. In sum, even the apparent beneficiaries of the tax exclusion might be better off eventually if the subsidy were curtailed.
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CONCLUSIONS
The present unlimited tax exclusion for employment-based health insurance has helped many people obtain health insurance, but it has also contributed to the high cost of health care by discouraging the purchase of cost-effective health insurance. The tax subsidy also provides uneven benefits, helping insured working people, but it provides no benefit to the uninsured and those who purchase their own insurance. It provides the largest subsidies to those who are most likely to obtain insurance even without a subsidy. And the subsidy is only valuable to those firms that can afford to sponsor health insurance for their employees, so it gives these firms an advantage in hiring employees compared with other firms.
A tax cap would heighten workers' consciousness of the cost of health insurance and is thus an important element of market-based approaches to control the cost of health care. Whether the cap is imposed on employers or on employees, employees will ultimately bear the cost of any cap and would have a similar incentive to reduce their spending on health insurance in either case. The revenues generated could also be used to advance other aims, such as reducing the number of people without insurance.