News This hurricane Harvey/Irma is nuts

[Spinnor]

It looks like Florida is seriously screwed. Irma is now predicted to run straight up the middle of the state all the way to Georgia.
The only upside is that it won't be a major hurricane for very long once it's inland.

View attachment 210626

In bowling language I think this is going to be a strike though I thought if it hugged the coast more damage would be done?

 

[Borg]

In bowling language I think this is going to be a strike though I thought if it hugged the coast more damage would be done?

I think that this will be much worse. The previous path had it going back out to sea after passing over Miami which would have limited the severest winds to a smaller quadrant.

Now the eye will pass over most of the state until it drops down from hurricane status somewhere north of Orlando. Winds in excess of 100 MPH are expected on both coasts. Towns along the center of the state are going to experience 125 - 150 MPH eastward blowing winds followed up minutes later with nearly the same wind speeds coming from the west after the eye passes. Whetever doesn't get blown away from the eastward winds, will be bent over - towards the west. When the westward winds arrive, those things will form a perfect trap for the air. It's going to be terrible for anyplace south of Orlando. North of that will still get hurricane force winds but it shouldn't be above Cat 2 by then.

 

[Spinnor]

Now up the west coast, nearly direct hit on Key West.

Some in Key West will ride out the storm,

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172226042.html

 

[BillTre]

This article shows where, hazardous wastes sites, hospitals, and nuclear plants are WRT possible hurricane Irma paths.

 

[Borg]

Some in Key West will ride out the storm,

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/weather/hurricane/article172226042.html

I found a nice list of webcams in the keys and other locations in Florida. It will be interesting to see how long they last.

This is as close as I will get.



Edit: This appears to be where the Marathon camera is pointed.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

I was looking for an explanation of the European model people are talking about. It is reputed to be the most accurate. I found this page.

To quote from the article:

"Now, you may be wondering, "Why is the official forecast so far to the left, when all of the other models had moved east?" The answer is the European model. This forecast system has superior hardware to run its calculations. But more importantly, it has a method by which it better assimilates real-world data—observations from weather networks around the world, atmospheric soundings, reconnaissance aircraft, and much more—into its calculations."

I normally don't watch TV, but I do when there's something this important going on. I have yet to see anyone point out differences between the models and explain why they differ. I might have missed it, but I've been watching for many hours.

People in authority are making decisions based on these models. This would seem to be an extremely important issue, given that so many lives, not to mention property and money, are at stake! Seems like a good area for a PhD thesis for someone who is qualified.

https://arstechnica.com/science/201...ost-accurate-weather-model-predicts-for-irma/

 

[Spinnor]

Southern most point,



Tame for now.

 

[nsaspook]

I was looking for an explanation of the European model people are talking about. It is reputed to be the most accurate. I found this page.

To quote from the article:

"Now, you may be wondering, "Why is the official forecast so far to the left, when all of the other models had moved east?" The answer is the European model. This forecast system has superior hardware to run its calculations. But more importantly, it has a method by which it better assimilates real-world data—observations from weather networks around the world, atmospheric soundings, reconnaissance aircraft, and much more—into its calculations."

I normally don't watch TV, but I do when there's something this important going on. I have yet to see anyone point out differences between the models and explain why they differ. I might have missed it, but I've been watching for many hours.

People in authority are making decisions based on these models. This would seem to be an extremely important issue, given that so many lives, not to mention property and money, are at stake! Seems like a good area for a PhD thesis for someone who is qualified.

https://arstechnica.com/science/201...ost-accurate-weather-model-predicts-for-irma/

They were warned the US models would give inferior forecasts.

http://mashable.com/2017/03/10/hurricane-forecasts-suffer-gfs-model-upgrade/#_prSAMDYQmqV

Florian Pappenberger, the director of forecasts at the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts in Reading, England, said at his agency, there are cases where the model is tinkered with and the results backslide in accuracy rather than taking a step forward.

https://arstechnica.com/science/201...e-been-pretty-terrible-during-hurricane-irma/

 

[Borg]

At least one Key West cam is still functioning this morning.

 

[Spinnor]

At least one Key West cam is still functioning this morning.

Strange, the track puts the eye almost over the above with highest winds at 130mph. Winds in the webcam don't look any where near that severe.

Google maps puts the eye(?), 24.4n 81.5w, 20miles south of Key West at 7am.

 

[Borg]

Strange, the track puts the eye almost over the above with highest winds at 130mph. Winds in the webcam don't look any where near that severe.

I noticed that as well. Maybe the eye is directly overhead right now?
Edit: Looks like that one is down as well. The YouTube page returns a four hour video and it loses the signal halfway through the video.

 

[nsaspook]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...mber_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-16.asp

 

[Spinnor]

Can still see the sidewalk somewhere in Key West,



Very sturdy trees.

 

[Spinnor]

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ram...mber_of_images_to_display=40&loop_speed_ms=80

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/goes-16.asp

Those satellites have a great view,

 

[Apple_Mango]

oh my gosh, that's so terrible.

 

[jim hardy]

I pray it stays over land and weakens.

Son is on his boat in Jacksonville - middle of engine rebuild so he towed it to a sheltered arm of St John's river

"Young Man and the Sea" ?I hope his anchor holds !

old jim

 

[nsaspook]

https://poweroutage.us/Area/State/Florida

The last GOES track has Irma headed for Orlando on a direct north heading unless it does a NW turn real soon.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/weat...-irma-orlando-area-impact-20170910-story.html

 

[nsaspook]

Best sign during Hurricane Irma. Very effective.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

It's been a while since I was very active on PF. Happy to have some time now to participate. I notice that now there are ads. At least I don't remember those from before.

I wonder if the following ad for Plenty of Fish which showed up on some posts about Irma is based on some algorithm. Probably it is. I think they don't select the ads at random.

Maybe it grabbed the keywords hurricane, Irma, European model, Florida, and webcams, and the algorithm decided these posts are by guys looking for a date. Also "plenty of fish" fits the ocean theme.

https://imgur.com/a/7sL7G

 

[Spinnor]

Best sign during Hurricane Irma. Very effective.

That guy is great, beautiful language that is "spoken" by most who can't speak?

 

[stoomart]

It's been a while since I was very active on PF. Happy to have some time now to participate. I notice that now there are ads. At least I don't remember those from before.

I wonder if the following ad for Plenty of Fish which showed up on some posts about Irma is based on some algorithm. Probably it is. I think they don't select the ads at random.

Maybe it grabbed the keywords hurricane, Irma, European model, Florida, and webcams, and the algorithm decided these posts are by guys looking for a date. Also "plenty of fish" fits the ocean theme.

https://imgur.com/a/7sL7G

I've never seen ads on PF before, maybe @Greg Bernhardt can confirm if this is expected, or if you may have some kind of adware running on your system.

 

[Spinnor]

I've never seen ads on PF before, maybe @Greg Bernhardt can confirm if this is expected, or if you may have some kind of adware running on your system.

If you are always logged in there are no ads. My iPad logs out from time to time and then i get to see the ads.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

Interesting, I had not thought about whether the ads were "legit" or not.

I was amused by the ad I saw. To me it's an example of the "all-knowing AI" that impresses some people who don't know what's happening under the hood. Much of this AI is based on simple algorithms which can lead to inappropriate results. I hope we can strip away the mystery from so-called AI so people realize it's still just a computer program and the real intelligence is in the humans who wrote the program!

 

[PhanthomJay]

Irma was powerful for sure, but the NHC forecasts were for worst case scenarios, I guess for safety, which really were overblown ( like 15 foot storm surges and 100+ mph sustained winds, which never occurred over land). And their forecast tracks were based on the consensus of about 20 computer forecast models, which predicted the track from The Keys northward through the middle of Florida, whereas the actual track along the west coast of FL toward Naples was predicted by the European Model at least 6 days earlier, but which they chose to ignore. The European Model, which has emerged over the past 15 years as Number One in Winter weather forecasting, has recently emerged in the past 2 years or so as Number One in Hurricane forecasting. Maybe the NHC should pay more attention to it and scrap some of the other models.

 

[jim hardy]

( like 15 foot storm surges and 100+ mph sustained winds, which never occurred over land).

Cuba took the brunt and weakened the storm considerably.

And their forecast tracks were based on the consensus of about 20 computer forecast models, which predicted the track from The Keys northward through the middle of Florida, whereas the actual track along the west coast of F

I stayed up most of the night and watched the reported eye center positions
it actually went halfway between those two paths , well inland a bit West of Florida's centerline . Over Arcadia and Gainesville.
As it fell apart the eye center got hard to pick out from satellite imagery.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/053748.shtml?gm_track

Son in Jacksonville - his anchor held, he and his boat are just fine. River came up about six feet and wind wasn't bad at all. Thank goodness it DID come in over land - that weakens them fast.

old jim

 

[PhanthomJay]

I'm looking at Florida Hurricane Irma weather history from the NWS, and at Naples I couldn't find a sustained wind greater than 50 mph, and when the eye passed and the wind shifted 180 degrees, at a predicted 100 mph speed or thereabouts on the other side of the eyewall, actual speeds were oh hum about 10 mph.! Pretty bad forecasting I'd say. Maybe i shouldn't say 'bad', because hurricane forecasting is extremely difficult, but come on, predicting 100 and getting only 10...enough said. And then there was the report that Naples had a wind gust of 142mph, as enthusiastically reported by the Weather Channel , which, if correct in the first place, came from a ship or some floating machine off-shore in the open waters. Big difference what's happening over ocean versus over land.

 

[jim hardy]

Pretty bad forecasting I'd say.

and bad reporting.

Forecasters have to lean in direction of safety - believe it or not the weather bureau has been sued in the past and will suffer a real lambasting if they under-forecast .
Irma could have rejuvenated over the water between Cuba and Naples but apparently did not . They had to assume the worst.It's natural for reporters to want to be exciting and hype things up .
As soon as i saw those drone pictures of a trailer park in Naples with most of the homes intact i knew there wasn't much wind left in the storm by the time it hit there.. Andrew turned a similar community in Florida City into shards of aluminum foil and deposited them in chain link fences for miles downwind . Dad was a hurricane forecaster in Miami so i grew up spoiled by predictions based on what they really know. The day before he died in 1998 Dad phoned from the hospital to tell us what time Hurricane George would arrive in Key Largo. He was within ten minutes. He also said "Don't worry those mountains in Haiti knocked the wind out of it so it won't be very bad ." And it wasn't, despite being hyped up like Irma..

old jim

 

[PhanthomJay]

Dad was a hurricane forecaster in Miami so i grew up spoiled by predictions based on what they really know. The day before he died in 1998 Dad phoned from the hospital to tell us what time Hurricane George would arrive in Key Largo. He was within ten minutes. He also said "Don't worry those mountains in Haiti knocked the wind out of it so it won't be very bad ." And it wasn't, despite being hyped up like Irma..

old jim

great story about your dad! Forecasting from experience the old fashioned way!
I loved it when weather channel Jim Cantori
was standing in I think fort Myers waiting
for the eye to arrive. Winds where gusting to maybe 60 mph or so, then suddenly became very light, and Jim assumed the eye had arrived, but was confused because the sky was not clear blue. Then the winds picked up again, and he thought he was on the backside
of the wall, but the winds he realized were still from the same direction, and he was at a loss for words. In the meantime, some other forecaster was somewhere on the east coast, where weather conditions , both wind and sea, were quite calm, but this didn't stop him from his "wait and you'll see" attitude. As you say, bad forecasting, and bad reporting.

 

[jim hardy]

This showed up today on a social site

looks like a plot of this genuine NOAA data from Naples station NPSF1 a couple hundred feet off the beach

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/data/realtime2/NPSF1.txt

suggesting that around time eye crossed there wind was in range of 20 to 28.8 m/sec with gusts to 37

30 m/sec is 67 miles per hour
37 m/sec is 82 mph

so the storm was weak when it got to Naples, as photographs of the town suggested.

old jim

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

In the Keys, 90% of homes were damaged including perhaps 25% destroyed. As of now there are about 4.4 million in Florida without power. In one nursing home in Hollywood, five residents died and about 100 were evacuated due to lack of A/C. Of course many people are now homeless and it's not clear what will happen to them. This storm has been a tremendous natural disaster. It's just fortunate that the feds and the state government had their act together, Gov. Scott kept urging people to evacuate, apparently most people who were ordered did evacuate, and the rescue teams were able to save so many people who did not evacuate and then needed to be rescued.

https://www.vox.com/science-and-health/2017/9/11/16285942/photos-hurricane-irma-florida

 

[jim hardy]

I must be looking at different photos and videos and reading different stats than the people who are downplaying Irma. In the Keys,

 

[jim hardy]

In the Keys, 90% of homes were damaged including perhaps 25% destroyed. As

The lower keys were hit harder than Naples.
From @Auf link: (@ not working again)
Beware of photos like this one they're picked for their emotional content.
Trailers are expected to blow away - they're expendable. But they make good press.
Observe the trees still have leaves and the power poles are still standing - that was no 180 mph storm.

now THAT one's scary - appears to be a stilt house that collapsed...
Note the one behind it is just fine. Better constructed , or farther from the wave action? I don't know i wasn't there. But the prudent owner had his shutters up.

Structures built properly will see only superficial damage.

Not making light of hurricanes, Dad taught me respect for their enormity and power.
Accordingly
Houses down there should be one two types:
Disposable and completely at owner's risk
or
Reinforced concrete and on pilings that extend well above expected high water . .
My house in Tavernier was of latter construction . Roof and floor were 5 inch concrete slabs, concrete pilings went up fourteen feet..

 

[MarkFL]

My power is back on now...I've got a lot of tree debris to clean up, but no damage to the houses in my family in the area. I t was a bit worse than Matthew, but the utility companies were much better prepared and organized this time around. Gotta give them a hand for the much quicker restoration.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

I don't really disagree with any of the above comments. My conclusion is that If I'm able to build my dream house to my specs, it will be built like a fortress, so that it would take MOAB or maybe a direct hit by a nuke to destroy it. Of course it won't be in an earthquake zone, or in a coastal region.

:)

 

[rootone]

Well Mars is fairly safe for the time being.

 

[nsaspook]

https://www.facebook.com/pg/USSIwoJimaLHD7/photos/?tab=album&album_id=776043212574762

 

[Noisy Rhysling]

Squids to the rescue! The LHD can operate as a 2,000 bed hospital in emergencies. She can also deliver 750 Kws. to shore and still have juice for "hotel" services.

Just don't drink the coffee.

 

[nsaspook]

Status update from NASKW.

 

[russ_watters]

Seems like a good time for a business trip to Puerto Rico...

 

[Borg]

Seems like a good time for a business trip to Puerto Rico...

Then again, maybe not.

 

[russ_watters]

An hour after I posted that I got a text to say the trip *might* be cancelled. My coworker is from there and flew down yesterday. I'm scheduled to fly out early tomorrow.

Earlier this afternoon it was showing a less aggressive intensification forecast.

 

[Borg]

Stay safe. This is a busy hurricane season this year.

 

[russ_watters]

An hour after I posted that I got a text to say the trip *might* be cancelled. My coworker is from there and flew down yesterday. I'm scheduled to fly out early tomorrow.

Earlier this afternoon it was showing a less aggressive intensification forecast.

The trip was canceled on Saturday night. My colleague is now stuck in Puerto Rico to ride out the hurricane -- it's now Cat 5. Not good.

 

[MarkFL]

I really feel for those in Maria's path so soon after Irma and Jose, and I can only hope this one misses Florida, which it is forecast to do at the moment.

 

[Noisy Rhysling]

The trip was canceled on Saturday night. My colleague is now stuck in Puerto Rico to ride out the hurricane -- it's now Cat 5. Not good.

I rode out a small one when I was stationed at Roosevelt Roads. Our barracks was cut off by high water for two days. No power, no running water. Much fun.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

Thanks to Maria, Puerto Rico is back in the dark ages, literally.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/art...kes-landfall-Puerto-Rico-Cat-4-hurricane.html