UN to Say It Overstated AIDS Cases.

[chemisttree]

WHOA!

Johannesburg, South Africa - The United Nations' top AIDS scientists plan to acknowledge this week that they have long overestimated both the size and the course of the epidemic, which they now believe has been slowing for nearly a decade, according to U.N. documents prepared for the announcement...

...The latest estimates, due to be released publicly today, put the number of annual new HIV infections at 2.5 million, a cut of more than 40% from last year's estimate, documents show...

...researchers, however, contend that persistent overestimates in the widely quoted U.N. reports have long skewed funding decisions and obscured potential lessons about how to slow the spread of HIV.

Critics also have said U.N. officials overstated the extent of the epidemic to help gather political and financial support for combating AIDS.

"There was a tendency toward alarmism, and that fit perhaps a certain fundraising agenda," said Helen Epstein, author of "The Invisible Cure: Africa, the West, and the Fight Against AIDS." "I hope these new numbers will help refocus the response in a more pragmatic way."

Craig Timberg, Washington Post

Yeah, let's hope they haven't screwed the pooch on this one.

I wonder when the U.N.'s IPCC will get around to also admitting that they too 'overestimated' something vitally important...

 

[Evo]

I wonder when the U.N.'s IPCC will get around to also admitting that they too 'overestimated' something vitally important...

When the facts don't match the "conclusions" eventually the truth can no longer be held back by the political yes men.

 

[Moridin]

Please.

The UN has done nothing to fix the HIV/AIDS issue. It has been up for discussion in the GA and the SC, but nothing has been done. The main argument seems to be whether to use the term 'homosexual' or not in their reports.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7103855.stm

But the UN officials involved in the report say that does not reflect reality.

The main reason for the fall, they say, is that they have adjusted their estimates after receiving more reliable data for some key countries.

Most countries do not report their cases. At all.

As a side note, isn't it time to give up on the human-aided global warming denial?

 

[Evo]

As a side note, isn't it time to give up on the human-aided global warming denial?

There is no denial, you can't deny something that hasn't been proven.

 

[Plastic Photon]

This sounds like it could be a major blow to the pharmaceutical industry and related industries who bank off such disaster scenarios as world AIDs epidemic or chicken fever.

 

[Yonoz]

This sounds like it could be a major blow to the pharmaceutical industry and related industries who bank off such disaster scenarios as world AIDs epidemic or chicken fever.

How much money can they make out of that poor continent? Their efforts are better spent selling cough syrup and sleeping pills in North America, and exotic extracts and soy products in Europe.
Incidentally, soy cultivation happens to be a major cause of Amazon deforestation.

 

[Economist]

"There was a tendency toward alarmism, and that fit perhaps a certain fundraising agenda," said Helen Epstein

This always happens. I am not suprised at all.

 

[Art]

When the facts don't match the "conclusions" eventually the truth can no longer be held back by the political yes men.

They seem to have learned from past errors. Now their predictions are over a 100 year timespan so unfortunately if/when it is proven to be wrong there'll be no-one left alive to say I told you so.

If the world temperature falls in the meantime they'll either claim it as a success for their policies being enacted or do another U-turn and revert to their anthropogenic snowball Earth theory

It really is a case of heads I win tails you lose.

 

[siddharth]

UN HIV estimates reduced to 33m

The United Nations has reduced its estimates of how many people are infected with HIV in 2007 from nearly 40m to 33m. Revised figures for India account for much of the decrease, experts say. But the rate of new cases and mortality levels are declining, although figures still show that there are 6,800 new cases each day and over 5,700 deaths.

(http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/health/7103163.stm)

I wonder when the U.N.'s IPCC will get around to also admitting that they too 'overestimated' something vitally important...

Maybe it'll happen, maybe it won't. Anyway, what does the IPCC report have to do with this? It's apples and oranges.

There is no denial, you can't deny something that hasn't been proven.

But, people can (and indeed, do) deny the current scientific consensus, that "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations". Do you?

 

[Evo]

But, people can (and indeed, do) deny the current scientific consensus, that "most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations". Do you?

The "consensus" lacks scientific proof. It's really just a "politically correct" consensus. I'll point you to one of Vanesch's excellent posts as he is a scientist and explains the problem quite well.

https://www.physicsforums.com/showpost.php?p=1467020&postcount=65

 

[chemisttree]

Maybe it'll happen, maybe it won't. Anyway, what does the IPCC report have to do with this? It's apples and oranges.

You say tomato, I say tomahhto, you say potato, I say potahhto. You say its apples and oranges, I say it's fruit salad...

Have a happy Thanksgiving, Siddharth!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

You are correct Siddharth. There is a consensus based on the best minds in the business. All other opinions are moot.

We will never have absolute proof. Science doesn't work that way. The confidence in AGW at least 90%.

 

[Art]

You are correct Siddharth. There is a consensus based on the best minds in the business. All other opinions are moot.

We will never have absolute proof. Science doesn't work that way. The confidence in AGW at least 90%.

Saying the confidence level expressed by the IPCC is 90% is a little like saying the RC church is 90% confident of the existence of God. It provides 'proof' for the believers of their faith but is irrelevant to those not party to the religion which is what AGW is these days - a religion. Totally faith based - never to be questioned and never to be doubted. There are even analogies for the miracles which religion uses to 'proove' their cause such as the polar bear extinction nonsense which is probably one of the least scientific pieces of rubbish ever published with the exception perhaps of some of the other GW sensationalist nonsense publications also masquerading as science.

Out of interest mankind's total contribution to greenhouse gasses is 0.28% do you really believe such a trivial figure can make much difference to GW or that reducing this figure to 0.26% will have Earth saving consequences? Even taking the 'notorious' CO2 alone man's contribution is 11 billion tonnes a year whilst nature's is 210 billion tonnes a year.

 

[mjsd]

Saying the confidence level expressed by the IPCC is 90% is a little like saying the RC church is 90% confident of the existence of God. It provides 'proof' for the believers of their faith but is irrelevant to those not party to the religion which is what AGW is these days - a religion. Totally faith based -

true to a certain extent, the conclusion on AGW is highly dependent on the climate model that one employs. you may trust model A, I may trust model B ...

One thing is clear however, human activities have so far done more harm than good to our environment.

Yeah, let's hope they haven't screwed the pooch on this one.

this "new insight" (or simply admittance of past exaggeration) could potentially mean a few things:
1. less future fundings for South Africa on AIDS related drugs, programs
2. a better image for South Africa, as it is not as plagued as first thought
3. a better image for the UN, as an effective force against AIDS in Africa
among other possibilities

seriously, there is no way of telling their initial motivation behind the gross overestimations in the past, and why they'd admitted it now.

 

[ShawnD]

This sounds like it could be a major blow to the pharmaceutical industry and related industries who bank off such disaster scenarios as world AIDs epidemic or chicken fever.

How so? People only buy drugs if they have the illness, not if they think they may have the illness based on UN speculation. In any event, Africa doesn't pay for drugs. Drugs are given to Africa as a PR thing to say "look how nice we are to Africans, now please pay us $1200 per month for Atripla" (Atripla is an HIV medication, retail value is $1200/month in the US).

I used to work for Gilead, the company that makes the emtricitabine portion of Atripla. We had several meetings about the huge profit margin on emtricitabine, and why employees should contribute 15% of their income towards the stock purchase plan. The vast majority of money made on that drug was in the US since the price in the US is 10x that of India, and about 20x that of Africa.edit: and good job on derailing an AIDS thread to talk about global warming. If you bring it up enough times, somebody will eventually give a rat's ass.

 

[Art]

edit: and good job on derailing an AIDS thread to talk about global warming. If you bring it up enough times, somebody will eventually give a rat's ass.

You did actually read the OP eh??

I wonder when the U.N.'s IPCC will get around to also admitting that they too 'overestimated' something vitally important...

Obviously not!

 

[ShawnD]

You did actually read the OP eh??

Obviously not!

Did you ever read that sign in the magical zoo that says "don't feed the trolls"? Same applies to forums. He started a thread under the pretext of it being about AIDS then ended it with a comment about global warming, and people chose to jump on the global warming comment. Another potentially interesting thread goes down the drain.

 

[Skyhunter]

I wonder when the U.N.'s IPCC will get around to also admitting that they too 'overestimated' something vitally important...

It will not be in the http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf"

http://ipcc.cac.es/"

 

[Art]

Did you ever read that sign in the magical zoo that says "don't feed the trolls"? Same applies to forums. He started a thread under the pretext of it being about AIDS then ended it with a comment about global warming, and people chose to jump on the global warming comment. Another potentially interesting thread goes down the drain.

If you want a thread specific to AIDS then why not start one?

I may be wrong but I read it as the originator of this thread wanted to highlight UN mendacity which seems a perfectly reasonable topic for discussion.

 

[Art]

It will not be in the http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar4/syr/ar4_syr_spm.pdf"

http://ipcc.cac.es/"

So the climate is changing. This isn't exactly surprising, the wonder would be if it wasn't.

Can you point to any period in the Earth's 4.5 billion year history the climate hasn't changed? In fact only 10,000 years ago Birmingham in the UK was under a mile of ice and the island of Ireland was populated by people who walked there from Britain.

The question is how does our 0.28% contribution to GHG materially affect climate?

 

[Skyhunter]

Art,

Using statistics to distort the facts is dishonest.

Since GHG levels are at levels clearly outside the bounds of natural variability, The human contribution has increased levels by 100ppm. That is an undisputed fact.

Why do you try and obfuscate by comparing the annual human emissions to the natural carbon cycle?

 

[Art]

Art,

Using statistics to distort the facts is dishonest.

You mean using facts to dispel nonsensical statistics? I don't see anything dishonest about that in the slightest.

Since GHG levels are at levels clearly outside the bounds of natural variability, The human contribution has increased levels by 100ppm. That is an undisputed fact.

Why do you try and obfuscate by comparing the annual human emissions to the natural carbon cycle?

Because the molecules don't know which of them are natural and which are manmade and so behave identically. It is AGW proponents who distort facts by conveniently leaving out water vapor when reporting mankind's % contribution to GHG emission despite water vapor being the main GHG. And their justification is - 'we've always done it that way' Duh!

 

[Gokul43201]

Saying the confidence level expressed by the IPCC is 90% is a little like saying the RC church is 90% confident of the existence of God.

...in the same way that saying steel is denser than water is a little like saying water is denser than steel. The emphasis ought to be placed where it belongs - on the word 'little'.

When a climate scientist uses the term 'confidence', it refers to a rigorously defined mathematical/statistical quantity known as the confidence interval (or significance level) ^{[1] http://www.cas.lancs.ac.uk/glossary_v1.1/confint.html#confinterval} .

I wish the membership in an AGW debate came with the minimum prerequisite that the debators be familiar with standard statisical analysis.

PS: This thread, now having been completely derailed, should probably be split off into one of the earlier AGW threads.

 

[Art]

...in the same way that saying steel is denser than water is a little like saying water is denser than steel. The emphasis ought to be placed where it belongs - on the word 'little'.

When a climate scientist uses the term 'confidence', it refers to a rigorously defined mathematical/statistical quantity known as the confidence interval (or significance level) ^{[1] http://www.cas.lancs.ac.uk/glossary_v1.1/confint.html#confinterval} .

I wish the membership in an AGW debate came with the minimum prerequisite that the debators be familiar with standard statisical analysis.

PS: This thread, now having been completely derailed, should probably be split off into one of the earlier AGW threads.

I wish the membership in an AGW debate came with the minimum prerequisite that the debators be familiar with

the subject they comment on

There are legitimate difficulties with the IPCC's 90 per cent confidence in anthropogenic warming. It is not ludicrous to question what that number means. The IPCC seems to imply that this number results from a scientific process -that it has tested a hypothesis. Indeed, the IPCC tells us its understanding is based "upon large amounts of new and more comprehensive data, more sophisticated analysis of data, improvements in understanding of processes and their simulation in models, and more extensive exploration of uncertainty ranges". If this is what the IPCC has done, it has very weak evidence. Ninety per cent is the weakest acceptable level of confidence in a hypothesis test. It is not clear from the Summary whether the IPCC has, in fact, undertaken such an analysis. It is more likely that it has neither a testable model nor data available for external researchers to replicate such a test. In other words, the IPCC's 90 per cent confidence has emerged from scientists evaluating whether they think their own work is correct.
There is an even greater problem with the analysis. The IPCC provides a breakdown of seven extreme weather events, and an assessment of human influence on those events. Only two of the individual events have a human impact of at least 66 per cent, the other five are 50-50 propositions. Somehow this all adds up to 90 per cent. Furthermore, in three of the weather events there is no underlying human attribution study -the IPCC made up that data.

http://www.ipa.org.au/files/news_1342.html

 

[Evo]

PS: This thread, now having been completely derailed, should probably be split off into one of the earlier AGW threads.

There are so many, I should probably merge them and have all AGW posts restricted to one thread. Let me think about it.

In the meantime, I will agree to split the AGW posts when I figure out where to put them and revert back to the AIDS issue, which with the lower revised figures is still a high number that shouldn't be overlooked.

My 2 cents on AGW, we don't know what effects are normal and which aren't, and to what degree any abnormality is happening and what parts of the world might be affected. I *am* for reducing pollution. I am also for being smart about thinking things through before we really mess things up, yes I would like to see some caution considering that every time humans try to "fix" a perceived problem, they usually create a more serious problem. Here in the midwest, the last 2 summers have been cooler than the previous 13. Today is the coldest Thanksgiving in 12 years. Freak frosts in late spring destroyed many fruit and other crops here.

 

[Gokul43201]

Art, will you ever learn to source your quotes?

 

[Art]

Gokul, You flatter the IPCC by assuming they use data derived information to arrive at their published confidence levels. That would be a bit too much like real science for them.

Where does the IPCC terminology "Very highly confident" come from?

Where does the terminology "Very highly confident" come from?

On February 2, the International Panel on Climate Change's (IPCC) issued a 21-page Summary for Policymakers (SPM) written by Fourth Assessment Report science section leads and government political or staff officials from 113 countries.

In the SPM, they issue pronouncements with probabilities and degrees of confidence expressed as "likely", "very likely" and "virtually certain". In a footnote, they relate these adjectives to confidence levels of 67%, 90% and 99%, which is detailed in the UncertaintyGuidanceNote.pdf IPCC policy for team members document.

Where does this terminology come from?
In statistics, similar terminology is used but with different meanings to make claims of statistically "significant" (95%), "highly significant" (99%), and "very highly significant" (99.9%).

Many of us were confused by the similar - but not the same - terminology used in the SPM and posted questions at RealClimate asking for an explanation of what the SPM terminology meant since the meaning is not provided by the IPCC documents. No answer was provided by RealClimate.

Where does this terminology come from and what does it mean?
Per a footnote in the SPM, as well as this paper by Dr. Steven Schneider, Professor of Biology at Stanford University, most of these estimates came from subjective "expert judgment". Dr. Schneider's paper appears to have been written for the IPCC and used as the basis of the terminology used by the IPCC. While some estimates may be data-derived, the SPM does not say which are based on data and which are based on subjective analysis. (Read Dr. Schneider's paper for yourself to understand the recommended best practices.)
[snip]
Summary

The probability and confidence levels in the Summary for Policymakers are not (in general) statistically derived but are from subjective analysis made by experts in the field. The probability and confidence levels are literally "gut feel" guesses.
cont'd

http://hamradio-online.com/commonsense/2007/10/where-does-ipcc-terminology-very-highly.html

As I said it's like catholic priests using their 'expert judgement' to express a 90% confidence level in the existence of God .

 

[Art]

With regard to this much vaunted consensus

How Many Climate Scientists Were Involved With Writing the 2007 IPCC Statement For Policymakers?

The media is in error when it states that,

“The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change –made up of thousands of scientists from around the world — reported earlier this month they are more certain than ever that humans are heating earth’s atmosphere through the burning of fossil fuels….” (see)

Are there really “thousands of scientists” who wrote this report? Hardly. The IPCC is actually led and written by just a few dozen scientists.

There is a summary of the final stages in writing the 2007 IPCC Statement for Policymakers in the February 18, 2007 edition of the Denver Post. The article is by Kevin Trenberth and is titled Climate report on deadline.

The article states that

“A full report that’s the basis for the summary was drafted by 154 lead authors and more than 450 contributing authors and runs to about 900 pages.

As one of about 30 lead authors attending the meeting, I found the experience both exhilarating and grueling.

We assembled on Saturday and Sunday, Jan. 27 and 28, to go over the written comments by governments on the draft summary. We prepared possible responses and text to update the report. The approval process is very demanding, as it requires unanimous consensus on the text, which is approved line by line. The rationale is that the scientists determine what can be said, but the governments help determine how it can best be said. There are detailed negotiations over wording to ensure accuracy, balance, clarity of message and relevance.”

This candid report confirms that the Statement For Policymakers was actually written with a small number of climate scientists. That such a small number of scientists are actually involved in the writing may make sense from the perspective of efficiency, but it also is guaranteed to result in a report that emphasizes the particular perspectives of the small group of scientists who wrote it. The biases that result would have been balanced if other climate scientists were able to write alternative perspectives, but this was not done. A “unanimous consensus” is hardly how science should be presented by a subset of the climate science community.

http://climatesci.colorado.edu/2007/03/09/how-many-climate-scientists-were-involved-with-writing-the-2007-ipcc-statement-for-policymakers/

 

[Skyhunter]

Art,

You mean using facts to dispel nonsensical statistics? I don't see anything dishonest about that in the slightest.

Are you suggesting that the 100ppm increase in CO₂ is not from human activity?

Your argument make no sense. Yes the carbon cycle is huge. No one denies it. But it was in relative equilibrium for the last 650,000 years.

Now you are going to argue that it is just a coincidence that CO₂ levels have increased 100ppm above the natural variability of the last 650,000 years at exactly the same time that humans have been emitting 6-7 gigatons a year?

Not to mention the isotopic ratios of C¹²/C¹³ of atmospheric carbon dioxide have also altered to levels not seen in the past 650,000 years, along with the decrease of C¹⁴, offer irrefutable evidence that the 100ppm increase is a direct result of human activity.

My friend you are in denial. There is no doubt that increase in atmospheric CO₂ is from human activity. So an honest evaluation of the facts are that the 30% increase in CO₂ over the last 150 years is a direct result of human activity. That is a far less misleading statement than your 0.28% figure.

 

[ShawnD]

I might as well join in this battle.

Are you suggesting that the 100ppm increase in CO₂ is not from human activity?

That's not what he said. What he said is that CO2 is a small contributor to the overall greenhouse effect, which is a factually accurate statement to make. You could increase CO2 levels by 100%, you could increase them by 3000%, and it would still be a small factor in the equation.
That doesn't mean CO2 does nothing, but in the big picture it does very little. Now if you could show there was a relation between CO2 and atmospheric water levels, that would be something huge.