I am somewhat annoyed by the term "unconditional probability", in that all probabilities are indeed conditional on filtration (an information set if you would like), without which, a probability is inadequately defined as though plucked out of thin air based on no logical information.(adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({});

I make the above conjecture based on the definition of a probability space (Ω,[itex]\scriptstyle \mathcal{F}[/itex],P), where [itex]\scriptstyle \mathcal{F}[/itex] is the filtration.

What I'm noticing however is that in explaining the conditional probability P(A|B), most undergraduate texts refer to P(A) or P(B) as the unconditional probability, where the right terminology should be [in the case of P(A)] the probability of A unconditional on B. This dumbing down of terminology serves to help non-statistics students in understanding probability theory, but it gives them an incorrect philosophy of what a probability is.

I'm opened to being convinced that an unconditional probability exists though.

What are your thoughts?

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# Unconditional probabilities do not exist? Discuss!

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