Viral spillover risk increases with climate change in High Arctic lake

[anorlunda]

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2022.1073

This raises the specter of pre-human era pathogens being re-released because the permafrost is melting. AFAIK, even the sci-fi authors have not explored that idea.

 

[Tom.G]

Here is another overview from 2 years earlier:

Understanding and Responding to Global Health Security Risks from Microbial Threats in the Arctic: Proceedings of a Workshop.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK562756/

(above, and many more, found with:
https://www.google.com/search?&q=pathogens+in+permafrost)

 

[berkeman]

Understanding and Responding to Global Health Security Risks from Microbial Threats in the Arctic: Proceedings of a Workshop.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK562756/

Yikes...

This interest grew when, in summer 2016 (a year that shattered records for Arctic-region warmth), a remote part of Siberia known as the Yamal Peninsula saw an outbreak of anthrax, which killed a 12-year-old boy, infected dozens of people, and killed more than 2,300 reindeer. While the combination of factors that led to this outbreak is debated, one theory is that it may have resulted from the thawing of a frozen reindeer carcass infected with anthrax, which released spores into nearby water and soil. It is well known that anthrax forms spores (Bacillus anthracis is the bacterium that causes anthrax) that can persist for decades and remain viable to cause disease, but this phenomenon may now be exacerbated by permafrost thawing.

 

[anorlunda]

Yikes...

Add it to the long list of things to worry about as the world changes. Suitable for Halloween themes.

Extinct Pathogens Ushered The Fall of Ancient Civilizations, Scientists Say​

https://www.sciencealert.com/thousa...helped-the-decline-of-an-ancient-civilization

When people discuss the effects of a change, they tend to think linearly and shallowly. Trying to visualize all possible side effects makes the brain melt. One can be more optimistic about the future when we consider nature's and man's ability to adapt to changes; even unforeseen changes.

 

[DaveC426913]

AFAIK, even the sci-fi authors have not explored that idea.

Darwin's Radio - Greg Bear

Not an "apocalypse" story - a "new breed of humans" story

 

[Vanadium 50]

This seems kind of unlikely. The idea is that a pathogen is so poorly adapted that it died out, but a few thousand years later it is now so well adapted that it becomes a global pandemic seems, like I said, unlikely. I'll believe either one, but I struggle with both.

 

[berkeman]

This seems kind of unlikely. The idea is that a pathogen is so poorly adapted that it died out, but a few thousand years later it is now so well adapted that it becomes a global pandemic seems, like I said, unlikely. I'll believe either one, but I struggle with both.

But maybe it killed all of its local hosts at the time, before it could spread past the freeze. But now with all the melting and runoff, it's party time!

 

[Vanadium 50]

But how many diseases do we know of with a 100% fatality rate? Five? Ten?

 

[berkeman]

Ask Santa...

 

[anorlunda]

But how many diseases do we know of with a 100% fatality rate? Five? Ten?

I see no claims of 100% fatality rate.

 

[DaveC426913]

This seems kind of unlikely.

What is "this"? Greg Bear's novel?

 

[Tom.G]

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention came close at >97% fatality rate for:

Naegleria fowleri​

(a brain-eating amoeba)

What is the death rate for an infected person who begins to show signs and symptoms?
The death rate is over 97%. Only four people have survived out of 154 known infected individuals in the United States from 1962 to 2021.

(https://www.cdc.gov/parasites/naegleria/general.html#anchor_68866)

As they say, "Close enough for Government work."

 

[Vanadium 50]

see no claims of 100% fatality rate.

I was responding to this

I see no claims of 100% fatality rate.

What is "this"? Greg Bear's novel?

Well, that too. But I was talking about the idea that a pathogen is so poorly adapted as to Th died out, but a few thousand years later it is now so well adapted that it becomes a global pandemic. This sounds unlikely to me.

 

[DaveC426913]

Well, that too. But I was talking about the idea that a pathogen is so poorly adapted as to Th died out, but a few thousand years later it is now so well adapted that it becomes a global pandemic. This sounds unlikely to me.

I think you'd need to read the book before making a judgement. It's a bit more nuanced than that.

 

[BillTre]

I read this Bear book. I don't remember any details, but it was an interesting and different story.
To me it seemed like vaguely possible, but not to an extent that it was really compelling.
Jurassic Park did a better job of that.
JP had two points to accept: We can get DNA and we can make dinosaurs.
But from that a the whole story flowed in a easy and familiar manner.
Bear's story was much more complex as I recall.

Arguing about the realism of a science fiction story kid of misplaced. There are going to be non-facts and contradictions. Its fiction. Its just nice when there are fewer of them.

Technical Matter about Differences in Pathogenicity:
It could be a matter of changes in the population's immune surveillance for the pathogen's antigens.

If the pathogen was previously widespread, the population would have had a well developed immunity to it.
The pathogen would not have a very strong effect on the host.
If the pathogen has not been around for many generations, immune responses to the particular pathogen would have to be relearned through experience. This would take time and could result in causalities.

 

[kyphysics]

Yeah, I saw this concern being talked about shortly after COVID. There was some random news article I read that discussed this risk.

Although, how "far" could these viruses travel and survive if they were "released" after the melting of the artic ice? How would they get to us humans and would they still be viable by that time?

 

[DaveC426913]

Although, how "far" could these viruses travel and survive if they were "released" after the melting of the artic ice? How would they get to us humans and would they still be viable by that time?

Well, in Bear's novel, the expeditionists found the preserved remains of a family of archaic sapiens in a cave, and the thawing was what released it and infected them directly.

The core of the story is about transmission and gene expression mechanisms that are much, much faster than sexual reproduction. I forget what the correct terms are: retro-viruses? epi-genetics? It's the mechanism where viruses can cause the expression of dormant genes (that we thought were "junk DNA") directly in the host - as opposed to their descendants.

 

[Klystron]

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rspb.2022.1073

This raises the specter of pre-human era pathogens being re-released because the permafrost is melting. AFAIK, even the sci-fi authors have not explored that idea.

Michael Crighton's brilliant novel "Andromeda Strain" explores the general notion of an ancient organism mutating to infect and kill humans via massive blood coagulation although the point of contagion lies in a sample cannister returned from the upper atmosphere, not specifically from melting permafrost.

Crighton hedges his bets with the open cannister being struck by a micrometeor carrying Andromeda; said meteor possibly originating from early Earth.

If memory serves, the movie "Prometheus" delves into ancient human DNA uncovered by melting glaciers but I have not read the SF source material.

 

[Chairman]

This seems kind of unlikely. The idea is that a pathogen is so poorly adapted that it died out, but a few thousand years later it is now so well adapted that it becomes a global pandemic seems, like I said, unlikely. I'll believe either one, but I struggle with both.

The significant difference in modelling epidemiology between since "a few thousand years ago" and the current risk is the widespread centers of compact population.

 

[DaveC426913]

The significant difference in modelling epidemiology between since "a few thousand years ago" and the current risk is the widespread centers of compact population.

And maybe computers help a little bit too...

 

[Vanadium 50]

I think you'd need to read the book before making a judgement. It's a bit more nuanced than that.

I did read the book. I don't think this is the SciFi section, so thought we were discussing the OP.

Not I am not saying it's impossible - just that a pathogen that evolved in 2000 BC to be relatively benign then, but to be extremely dangerous to people from 2000 AD (who were not to appear for 4000 years) strikes me as unlikely. The human genome just hasn't shifted that much.

 

[Laroxe]

I think I'm with Vanadium 50 on this one, the idea of pre-human pathogens being released because of melting permafrost is a nice scare story but seems to ignore certain points. The use of the term pre human, does suggest pathogens that have evolved in the absence of us as a prey species and that's capable of surviving freezing for many centuries.

A pathogen from history would then have to compete with the current populations with their several million years of evolutionary refinement to this environment. Though if we consider pre-human as meaning pre-hominea that would take us back up to 2 million years, in the last 800,000 years the earth has gone through some 8 periods of warming and cooling. Having said that close relatives to humans would probably avoid the cold areas.

Viruses have to co-evolve with the cells they can prey upon, those living in soil would have to live on soil organisms and then both the virus and their target would need to survive these prolonged periods. In fact extreme cold need no involve the organism being frozen, the temperature is enough to kill most.

I tend to see these stories rather like the ones suggesting diseases moving into new areas because of temperature change when in fact most of the diseases have already been present in these areas, but are now controlled. The concern is based on insect vectors extending their range, which is actually difficult when a single cold winter can wipe them out. While this does seem rather more credible, despite years of warnings there is no real evidence of it occurring.

We are lucky (?) enough to have huge reservoirs of potential pathogens, we really don't need to invent new ones in support of other causes of anxiety, even if the threat was real it would change nothing.