Warped Coin Probability: Flipping 5 Times - Find More Heads than Tails

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The discussion focuses on calculating the probability of obtaining more Heads than Tails when flipping a warped coin five times. The warped coin has a probability of 0.5 for Heads, 0.4 for Tails, and 0.1 for landing on its Edge. The correct solution was provided by members anemone and MarkFL, confirming the necessity of considering all possible outcomes in the probability calculation.

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A warped coin has probability of 0.5 of landing Heads, probability of 0.4 of landing Tails, and probability 0.1 of landing on its Edge. It is flipped 5 times. What is the probability that more Heads occur than Tails?
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Congratulations to the following members for their correct solutions:

1) anemone
2) MarkFL

Solution (from anemone):
The probability that more Heads occur than Tails

$\small=\text{P(5 Heads)}+\text{P(4 Heads 0 Tail 1 Edge)}+\text{P(4 Heads 1 Tail 0 Edge)}+\text{P(3 Heads 0 Tail 2 Edges)}+\text{P(3 Heads 2 Tails 0 Edges)}+\text{P(3 Heads 1 Tail 1 Edge)}$

$\;\;\small+\text{P(2 Heads 0 Tail 3 Edges)}+\text{P(2 Heads 1 Tail 2 Edge)}+\text{P(1 Heads 0 Tail 4 Edge)}$

$=0.5^5+\dfrac{0.5^4\cdot0.1\cdot5!}{4!}+ \dfrac{0.5^4\cdot0.4\cdot5!}{4!}+\dfrac{0.5^3\cdot0.1^2\cdot5!}{3!\cdot2!}+ \dfrac{0.5^3\cdot0.4^2\cdot5!}{3!\cdot2!}+\dfrac{0.5^3\cdot0.1\cdot0.4\cdot5!}{3!}+\dfrac{0.5^2 \cdot 0.1^3\cdot5!}{2!\cdot3!}+\dfrac{0.5^2\cdot0.4\cdot0.1^2\cdot5!}{2!\cdot2!}+\dfrac{0.5^1\cdot0.1^4 \cdot 5!}{4!}$

$=0.03125+0.03125+0.125+0.0125+0.2+0.1+0.0025+0.03+0.00025$

$=0.53275$
 

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