News Welfare now 21% of Federal Budget

[russ_watters]

The financial sector is the bridge that failed, not the social programs.

Social Security was supposed to provide a safe way to invest for retirement, providing a return on investment of several times the principle. Today, it is providing zero return on investment. The result is that people retiring today will get vastly less money back vs their investment than people did 40 years ago. That's a failure, in my book.

Or to put it another way: if you invest $500,000 toward your retirement and plan on having $2,000,000 to retire with due to growth, but only get $500,000, that's a big miss and will cause a huge loss of standard of living.

Now for SS, it is kinda the other way around though: When SS was started, the tax rate was 2%. Now it is 12%, not including the recent temporary cut. So that's a change of 6x. That is enough to explain all of the change in pay-in to pay-out ratio. So actually it is actually in our working-age years we are being screwed, not in retirement.

40 years ago, people would pay $500,000 for $2,000,000 in retirement savings, but today we are paying $2,000,000. Which reduces our working age standard of living.

[note: numbers are estimated for illustration.]

The social programs, of course, are weight on the bridge that lowered its failure tolerance...

No, one really has nothing to do with the other.

It's certainly relevant. Downward can be a manageable slope, downward can be exponential decay, or downward can be a trough at the beginning of a peak.

You're not getting what we're talking about here: Downward means every person who retires does worse than the person who retired before him/her. There's nothing "manageable" about that unless we don't care about that continuously worsening deal. (slight exaggeration for illustrative purposes: the slope is of course not completely smooth and people live different lengths of time.)

I'm not sure when you speak of the pyramid, what you mean.

I speak of it as in pyramid scheme. A system where a large base of people paying in pay the people at the top of the pyramid. With SS/Medicare, the increasing longevity of the population and lowering population rate increase are moving the threshold between pay-in and pay-out downward and narrowing the base, respectively.

 

[russ_watters]

What on median income?
http://www.census.gov/prod/2012pubs/p60-243.pdf

Or the link that was provided by op listing the "programs"?

I won't parse those. Please cite them specifically. The simplest way would be to name a program on the list linked in the OP that doesn't fit the definition, then acknowledge that most do and therefore you were wrong to say there is only one welfare program.

You have two claims to prove now (three if we also continue with who is manufacturing a talking point) and I won't allow you to move the goalposts by replacing the first with the second. Proving the second requires one program to be mislabeled (and your choice of sources says it is the government being inconsistent, not Republicans). Proving the first requires all but one of them to be mislabeled.

I stand by my argument that this isn't welfare. Even by your own definitions, in which you quoted, we aren't talking about welfare. Tax breaks are not government transfers or government spending.

What tax breaks are you referring to? What is "this"?

I claimed that this particular talking point was an abuse of the definition of welfare.

Two different claims, but yes.

The whole thing has elections written all over it.

Agreed!

While we're talking about abuse of definitions, consider this common one:

Corporate welfare is a sociological concept that analogizes corporate subsidies to welfare payments for the poor. The term is often used derogatorily to describe a government's bestowal of money grants, tax breaks, or other special favorable treatment on corporations or selected corporations, and implies that corporations are much less needy of such treatment than the poor. In practice, the term is often used virtually interchangeably with crony capitalism...

Ralph Nader, an American critic of corporate welfare, is often credited with coining the term.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Corporate_welfare

That is the most common abuse of the term "welfare" that I'm aware of. So this issue is mostly (almost exclusively? - I still have yet to see an example from the other side) a liberal attempt at definition-mangling.

 

[russ_watters]

No, it's not "untrue". If anything, the deception lies in that pie chart presented in post #32 that shows "Welfare" as only 11% of the budget. That slice should have been designated "Miscellaneous welfare". It does not include everything that almost everyone would agree deems to be called "welfare". That "Welfare" slice of the pie is just budget function 600 less subfunction 602 (federal employee retirement and disability).

I would tend to agree. The fact that all of the labels are capitalized confuses things by making it less clear that that is just that one program and not all forms of welfare.

 

[aquitaine]

Personally I'm in favor of the Purple Social Security Plan and the Purple Health Plan.

To me it is unconscionable to just let people die because they aren't successful, but the current system is in dire need of reform.

 

[SixNein]

No, it's not "untrue". If anything, the deception lies in that pie chart presented in post #32 that shows "Welfare" as only 11% of the budget. That slice should have been designated "Miscellaneous welfare". It does not include everything that almost everyone would agree deems to be called "welfare". That "Welfare" slice of the pie is just budget function 600 less subfunction 602 (federal employee retirement and disability).

For example, the "Health care" wedge of this pie chart includes the 349.1 billion dollars that fall under budget subfunction 551. The largest component of subfunction 551 is the 282.8 billion granted to states for Medicaid. That's welfare. Add that 282.8 billion to the 422.3 billion dollars that forms the "Welfare" slice of the pie and you're at 18.5% of the federal budget, which is a lot closer to the Republican's 21% than the pie chart's 11%. Some of what's categorized in that pie chart as "Education" is also "welfare". Add these in, and various other things spritzed around in various budget subfunctions, and you get the Republican's 21%.

Note: Not all of subfunction 551 is "welfare". The government's share of health insurance for retired military, retired civil servants, and retired postal workers are also in subfunction 551.

I would accept that medicate is welfare. But if your going to include medicate, why not include medicare?

In addition as you pointed out, they include programs that are, imo, more about the promotion of social mobility (education) than safety nets. But ok let's call it welfare. So why not include any federal spending that targets helping new small businesses like the Business Development Program?

The 8(a) Program is an essential instrument for helping socially and economically disadvantaged entrepreneurs gain access to the economic mainstream of American society. The programs helps thousands of aspiring entrepreneurs to gain a foothold in government contracting.

http://www.sba.gov/content/8a-business-development-0

Student loans-> Small Business loans?

"Community Service Employment for Older Americans" (in op link) is welfare but "http://www.sba.gov/content/small-business-development-centers-sbdcs" is not?

Quite frankly, they picked out things unpopular with their base, and they left out things that are popular with their base. So how are they not abusing welfare here?

 

[russ_watters]

I would accept that medicate is welfare.

Then do you acknowledge that this was wrong?:

Welfare, as it's normally defined (the welfare check), refers to the federal program called TANF or "Temporary Assistance to Needy Families."

But if your going to include medicate, why not include medicare?

Because Medicaid is for poor people and Medicare isn't.

 

[D H]

Welfare, as it's normally defined (the welfare check), refers to the federal program called TANF or "Temporary Assistance to Needy Families."

Is that your one and only program that you think qualifies as welfare?

If it isn't, please whittle this list of 83 programs down to the ones that you would say do qualify as welfare.

1. Family Planning
2. Consolidated Health Centers
3. Transitional Cash and Medical Services for Refugees
4. State Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP)
5. Voluntary Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit-Low-Income Subsidy
6. Medicaid
7. Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program
8. Breast/Cervical Cancer Early Detection
9. Maternal and Child Health Block Grant
10. Indian Health Service
11. Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) (cash aid)
12. Supplemental Security Income
13. Additional Child Tax Credit
14. Earned Income Tax Credit (refundable component)
15. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)
16. School Breakfast Program (free/reduced price components)
17. National School Lunch Program (free/reduced price components)
18. Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC)
19. Child and Adult Care Food Program (lower income components)
20. Summer Food Service Program
21. Commodity Supplemental
22. Food Program Nutrition Assistance for Puerto Rico
23. The Emergency Food Assistance Program (TEFAP)
24. Nutrition Program for the Elderly
25. Indian Education
26. Adult Basic Education Grants to States
27. Federal Supplemental Educational Opportunity Grant
28. Education for the Disadvantaged- Grants to Local Educational Agencies (Title I-A)
29. Title I Migrant Education Program
30. Higher Education-Institutional Aid and Developing Institutions
31. Federal Work-Study
32. Federal TRIO Programs
33. Federal Pell Grants
34. Education for Homeless Children and Youth
35. 21st Century Community Learning Centers
36. Gaining Early Awareness and Readiness for Undergraduate Programs (GEAR- UP)
37. Reading First and Early Reading First
38. Rural Education Achievement Program
39. Mathematics and Science Partnerships
40. Improving Teacher Quality State Grants
41. Academic Competitiveness and Smart Grant Program
42. Single-Family Rural Housing Loans
43. Rural Rental Assistance Program
44. Water and Waste Disposal for Rural Communities
45. Public Works and Economic Development
46. Supportive Housing for the Elderly
47. Supportive Housing for Persons with Disabilities
48. Section 8 Project-Based Rental Assistance
49. Community Development Block Grants
50. Homeless Assistance Grants
51. Home Investment Partnerships Program (HOME)
52. Housing Opportunities for Persons with AIDS (HOPWA)
53. Public Housing
54. Indian Housing Block Grants
55. Section 8 Housing Choice Vouchers
56. Neighborhood Stabilization Program-1
57. Grants to States for Low-Income Housing in Lieu of Low-Income Housing Credit Allocations
58. Tax Credit Assistance Program
59. Indian Human Services
60. Older Americans Act Grants for Supportive Services and Senior Centers
61. Older Americans Act Family Caregiver Program
62. Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) (social services)
63. Child Support Enforcement
64. Community Services Block Grant
65. Child Care and Development Fund
66. Head Start HHS
67. Developmental Disabilities Support and Advocacy Grants
68. Foster Care
69. Adoption Assistance
70. Social Services Block Grant
71. Chafee Foster Care Independence Program
72. Emergency Food and Shelter Program
73. Legal Services Corporation
74. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) (employment and training component)
75. Community Service Employment for Older Americans
76. Workforce Investment Act (WIA) Adult Activities
77. Workforce Investment Act (WIA) Youth Activities
78. Social Services and Targeted Assistance for Refugees
79. Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) (employment and training)
80. Foster Grandparents
81. Job Corps
82. Weatherization Assistance Program
83. Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP)

This is the list of programs that led to that 21% figure. Some are perhaps dubious as "welfare". So come up with your own list.

Please be reasonable. It had better not be TANF and TANF only. That's not a reasonable definition of "welfare".

 

[StevieTNZ]

Sounds like you guys are attacking each other.

 

[SixNein]

Then do you acknowledge that this was wrong?: Because Medicaid is for poor people and Medicare isn't.

No, I was just accepting the definition as being used for the sake of argument, and I was pointing out that republicans are excluding programs that target old, rich, veterans, and business. I'm curious as to why they should be excluded. In my opinion, the list only includes things republicans don't like while excluding things they do like or need for votes.

And yes, people traditionally use welfare in politics to refer to TANF. IE: Welfare rolls, welfare queens, welfare reform, or just plain old welfare.

Mitt Romney, for example, has been investing quite a bit on running attack ads on "welfare" (TANF).
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-215_162-57499358/the-real-strategy-behind-romneys-lying-welfare-ads/

Of course, those attack ads were wildly false. But quite frankly, I'm starting to agree with the Romney team that facts simply don't matter. Half of eligible Americans don't vote, and so whatever candidate can rally its partisan base wins.

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Of course medicare is for poor people.

In 1959, for example, 35.2 percent of Americans over 65 were living below the poverty line, compared with 17 percent of those under 65. Today, about 10 percent of seniors are living in poverty. Before Medicare was enacted, the elderly paid 53 percent of the cost of their health care. That share dropped to 29 percent in 1975 and to 18 percent in 1997. The elderly s health costs consumed 24 percent of the average Social Security check shortly before Medicare; by 1975, that share dropped to 17 percent (Gornick, 1976).

http://www.cms.gov/Research-Statist...eports/TheChartSeries/Downloads/35chartbk.pdf

Though to be fair...

Elderly poverty in the U.S. decreased dramatically during the twentieth century. Between 1960 and 1995, the official poverty rate of those aged 65 and above fell from 35 percent to 10 percent, and research has documented similarly steep declines dating back to at least 1939. While poverty was once far more prevalent among the elderly than among other age groups, today's elderly have a poverty rate similar to that of working-age adults and much lower than that of children.

Social Security is often mentioned as a likely contributor to the decline in elderly poverty. Enacted in 1935, the Social Security system experienced rapid benefit growth in the post-WWII era. In fact, there is a striking association between the rise in Social Security expenditures per capita and the decline in elderly poverty, as Figure 1 illustrates (with both series scaled to fit on the same figure).

http://www.nber.org/bah/summer04/w10466.html

In addition, half of recipients of Medicare are lower than 200% of federal poverty level. So many of them will also qualify for many of the programs listed.

http://assets.aarp.org/rgcenter/health/fs149_medicare.pdf

And they get a lot more out of these services than they put into them.

At the end of the day, they only included things that didn't like while not including things they do like or need to win votes. And it's not very useful outside of making some kind of talking point to use on the campaign trail. And many people will likely associate the welfare spending claim with TANF.

If they were serious about dealing with debt, they would be talking about health-care programs and their effects throughout the federal system. For example, states may shift funds away from higher education for the purpose of funding its health-care services; as a result, the cost of education increases leading to higher costing programs like the pell grant.

Health care spending, military spending, and taxes are the largest problems in our budget.

 

[SixNein]

Please be reasonable. It had better not be TANF and TANF only. That's not a reasonable definition of "welfare".

One would just need to create a rigorous definition of welfare and include all programs that fall within it. For example, should programs that encourage social mobility be defined as welfare? If so then all programs that meet such a criteria should be included.

But at the end of the day, what is accomplished?

It seems to me that politicians are getting ready to practice the fine art of plucking feathers off a goose. They want to get the largest amount of feathers with the least amount of hissing. Military spending, healthcare spending, and revenues are really messing up federal and state budgets. But they are also impossible to touch without getting zapped by the ultra partisan gods. So it seems to me that their going to let it go until the whole thing falls apart. Even with huge cuts in this list of yours, the growth rates on health-care will make up for it. The growth rates for 2013 is projected to be around 7.5%. So health-care costs are doubling around every 9.33 years at that rate. And it is going to cripple state and federal budgets, and it can't be covered up with cutting elsewhere forever. In my opinion, they are looking for cuts that will allow them to kick the big bang a little further down the road. And the further they kick it, the bigger the bang.

On the other hand, things are so partisan right now that our government isn't functioning properly. Just look at the major disruptions occurring. The fiscal cliff is a fairly dangerous thing because it injects a lot of uncertainty in the market. In addition, it would throw us back into recession. I wouldn't be surprised if they don't wait until the last second to do something about it. But eventually, one day, they are going to surprise everyone and simply not act. We keep using the assumption that some things are so terrible that they'll definitely act. I'm not sure that is a safe assumption anymore. The amount of people wanting us to default last year was staggering. The nation is turning into a situation where the ignorant rule the wise.

And that's starting to take a toll on me. Honestly, I could write a 40 page report on nothing but criticism of either party.

 

[Pythagorean]

Sounds like you guys are attacking each other.

Welcome to P&WA, hope you weren't expecting genuine discussion. Rule #1, for each fact there are two interpretations, but your interpretation is right and the other guy's is wrong. Since you can't prove interpretations, just use tautology and accuse the other guy of ignorance.

Hope that clears everything up. Good luck, here's your helmet.

 

[aquitaine]

Is that your one and only program that you think qualifies as welfare?

If it isn't, please whittle this list of 83 programs down to the ones that you would say do qualify as welfare.

1. Family Planning
2. Consolidated Health Centers
3. Transitional Cash and Medical Services for Refugees
4. State Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP)
5. Voluntary Medicare Prescription Drug Benefit-Low-Income Subsidy
6. Medicaid
7. Ryan White HIV/AIDS Program
8. Breast/Cervical Cancer Early Detection
9. Maternal and Child Health Block Grant
10. Indian Health Service
11. Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) (cash aid)
12. Supplemental Security Income
13. Additional Child Tax Credit
14. Earned Income Tax Credit (refundable component)
15. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP)
16. School Breakfast Program (free/reduced price components)
17. National School Lunch Program (free/reduced price components)
18. Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants and Children (WIC)
19. Child and Adult Care Food Program (lower income components)
20. Summer Food Service Program
21. Commodity Supplemental
22. Food Program Nutrition Assistance for Puerto Rico
23. The Emergency Food Assistance Program (TEFAP)
24. Nutrition Program for the Elderly
25. Indian Education
26. Adult Basic Education Grants to States
27. Federal Supplemental Educational Opportunity Grant
28. Education for the Disadvantaged- Grants to Local Educational Agencies (Title I-A)
29. Title I Migrant Education Program
30. Higher Education-Institutional Aid and Developing Institutions
31. Federal Work-Study
32. Federal TRIO Programs
33. Federal Pell Grants
34. Education for Homeless Children and Youth
35. 21st Century Community Learning Centers
36. Gaining Early Awareness and Readiness for Undergraduate Programs (GEAR- UP)
37. Reading First and Early Reading First
38. Rural Education Achievement Program
39. Mathematics and Science Partnerships
40. Improving Teacher Quality State Grants
41. Academic Competitiveness and Smart Grant Program
42. Single-Family Rural Housing Loans
43. Rural Rental Assistance Program
44. Water and Waste Disposal for Rural Communities
45. Public Works and Economic Development
46. Supportive Housing for the Elderly
47. Supportive Housing for Persons with Disabilities
48. Section 8 Project-Based Rental Assistance
49. Community Development Block Grants
50. Homeless Assistance Grants
51. Home Investment Partnerships Program (HOME)
52. Housing Opportunities for Persons with AIDS (HOPWA)
53. Public Housing
54. Indian Housing Block Grants
55. Section 8 Housing Choice Vouchers
56. Neighborhood Stabilization Program-1
57. Grants to States for Low-Income Housing in Lieu of Low-Income Housing Credit Allocations
58. Tax Credit Assistance Program
59. Indian Human Services
60. Older Americans Act Grants for Supportive Services and Senior Centers
61. Older Americans Act Family Caregiver Program
62. Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) (social services)
63. Child Support Enforcement
64. Community Services Block Grant
65. Child Care and Development Fund
66. Head Start HHS
67. Developmental Disabilities Support and Advocacy Grants
68. Foster Care
69. Adoption Assistance
70. Social Services Block Grant
71. Chafee Foster Care Independence Program
72. Emergency Food and Shelter Program
73. Legal Services Corporation
74. Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) (employment and training component)
75. Community Service Employment for Older Americans
76. Workforce Investment Act (WIA) Adult Activities
77. Workforce Investment Act (WIA) Youth Activities
78. Social Services and Targeted Assistance for Refugees
79. Temporary Assistance for Needy Families (TANF) (employment and training)
80. Foster Grandparents
81. Job Corps
82. Weatherization Assistance Program
83. Low-Income Home Energy Assistance Program (LIHEAP)

This is the list of programs that led to that 21% figure. Some are perhaps dubious as "welfare". So come up with your own list.

Please be reasonable. It had better not be TANF and TANF only. That's not a reasonable definition of "welfare".

Wow, that's quite a list. I'm seeing a lot of redundancies, so wouldn't it make sense to roll several related programs into one? Like for example free school lunches and food stamps? I would think such consolidations would reduce the bureaucracies, making more efficient use of tax money...

 

[SixNein]

Sounds like you guys are attacking each other.

I wouldn't call any of this an attack.

People who enjoy talking about politics do so because they like the process of argumentation. Arguments are an excellent way to test ideas and often things can be learned from them. Of course, there are many people who don't like their ideas being challenged, and they will take every argument as if it is a personal attack. But there isn't too much of that in this forum.

As a bystander, one should just judge this by the merits of the arguments being presented. It could be that you disagree with both arguments, and you should jump into test out your own ideas. Unless the argument is that rare thing that gets instant consensus, your idea will likely be challenged by someone, and you'll be able to learn the strengths and weaknesses of it. Just don't take it personal.