What are the Consequences of a Longer PETM?

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on the implications of an extended Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) on marine ecosystems. It highlights that a prolonged PETM would elevate the lysocline, leading to increased ocean acidification and the potential extinction of coral reefs and various marine species, including foraminifera. The conversation also touches on the migration of aquatic species due to temperature changes and the importance of world-building in speculative fiction, emphasizing that scientific accuracy should not hinder storytelling.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM)
  • Knowledge of marine ecosystems and their responses to temperature changes
  • Familiarity with ocean acidification and its effects on carbonate structures
  • Concept of the lysocline and its significance in marine geology
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the effects of ocean acidification on coral reef ecosystems
  • Explore the concept of the lysocline and its role in marine carbonate chemistry
  • Investigate the migration patterns of marine species in response to climate change
  • Study world-building techniques in speculative fiction, focusing on climate and geography
USEFUL FOR

Marine biologists, climate scientists, speculative fiction writers, and anyone interested in the historical impacts of climate change on marine life.

JohnWDailey
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This is for an alternate Earth that I've been building and rebuilding for years.

Sometime between the Paleocene and Eocene epochs, there was a mysterious, sudden, dramatic rise in global temperature. This moment in time was known as the "Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum", shortened into "PETM". In just 20 to 50 millennia, the temperature rose by five to eight degrees Celsius, and this heatweave persisted for another 200 millennia (and that's just the mean estimate.)
While its impact on terrestrial plant and animal life is well-known, the focus of the thread is on how the PETM impacted the marine ecosystems. The warmer the water's temperature, the less oxygen it can hold, resulting in ocean anoxia. And since water has a low albedo, it absorbs carbon dioxide rather than reflects it. And in an episode as CO2-rich as the PETM, the oceans absorbed so much of the greenhouse gas that they had become acidifed. That, in turn, depleted the supply of carbonates, which many animals relied on to build shells and other structures. Indeed, fossil remains of coral reefs dating from the PETM to several million years afterwards were rare, and anywhere between one-third and half of all the deep-sea species of foraminifera (tiny, planktonic lifeforms) went extinct. Finally, the warmer waters also affected the arrangement of a particular layer called the lysocline:
The lysocline marks the depth at which carbonate starts to dissolve (above the lysocline, carbonate is oversaturated): today, this is at about 4 km, comparable to the median depth of the oceans. This depth depends on (among other things) temperature and the amount of CO2 dissolved in the ocean. Adding CO2 initially raises the lysocline, resulting in the dissolution of deep water carbonates. This deep-water acidification can be observed in ocean cores, which show (where bioturbation has not destroyed the signal) an abrupt change from grey carbonate ooze to red clays (followed by a gradual grading back to grey). It is far more pronounced in north Atlantic cores than elsewhere, suggesting that acidification was more concentrated here, related to a greater rise in the level of the lysocline. In parts of the southeast Atlantic, the lysocline rose by 2 km in just a few thousand years.
In an alternate Earth, the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum did happen at the same time as OTL and at the same speed, but it lasted three to four times longer. With that in mind, questions follow:
  1. Would a longer PETM lift the lysocline closer to the surface?
  2. Based on our knowledge of shark and ray species that were around to witness the PETM, would any of them survive the longer period of warmer, more acidic oceans? And were there any freshwater species at the time?
  3. Would a longer PETM destroy the coral reefs (as is my primary target), and if yes, how would that affect the other invertebrates and the fish that relied on the reefs for food, shelter and breeding?
  4. Would life in brackish and fresh water fare better than in seawater?
  5. Could pelagic (open-ocean) species have a chance of surviving a longer PETM? And if they colonized the shallow water ecosystems, could they evolve to grow smaller?
 
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I think you could make cases for either scenario to each of your questions so you choose and create your story the way you want.

One thing that happens when ocean waters warm is migration of aquatic species to regions where the temperature is better or where the food supply has migrated. You could use that notion in your story perhaps.

https://www.neefusa.org/weather-and...res also deplete,to migrate elsewhere to feed.

Also, I don't think your readers would get into the science as much as you have here and these details may actually prevent you from writing an interesting story. This one of the reasons why sci-fi writers develop warp speed because space is large. However, they mostly ignore ignore Special Relativity as it gets in the way and your stories become more about someone aging and someone not.
 
This is not for a story. This is for an alternate history textbook that'd serve as a blueprint for any stories set in that world. World comes before history, and history comes before story. That is how things were, and that is something that too many worldbuilders just missed.
 
Orson Scott Card wrote extensively on world-building. My point is that when you try to adhere too closely to science then your sci-fi story is no longer sci-fi and indeed the plots become more confining.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/1599631407/?tag=pfamazon01-20

Let your imagination soar. Carry on.
 
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JohnWDailey said:
This is for an alternate history textbook that'd serve as a blueprint for any stories set in that world.

You've been writing this textbook since 2017. I think you have to ask yourself if this is really helping you write your stories or getting in the way.
 
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JohnWDailey said:
World comes before history, and history comes before story.

I'm not sure I buy this. Are you writing about people or are you writing about place?
People are more interesting.
 
I think it’s a paraphrase from LoTR

“And some things that should not have been forgotten were lost. History became legend. Legend became myth. And for two and a half thousand years, the ring passed out of all knowledge.”

― Galadriel in The Lord of the Rings: The Fellowship of the Ring,The Lord of the Rings
 
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jedishrfu said:
I think it’s a paraphrase from LoTR

Wrong. It's the truth. In Earth's four-and-a-half-billion-year history, only ten thousand at the least have been spent on telling stories, which have basis on history.
 
Vanadium 50 said:
I'm not sure I buy this. Are you writing about people or are you writing about place?
People are more interesting.
Place comes first. If you don't pay attention to how the geography influences the climate, then this world is not believable, and reading it would be lacking in substance.
 
  • #10
jedishrfu said:
Orson Scott Card wrote extensively on world-building. My point is that when you try to adhere too closely to science then your sci-fi story is no longer sci-fi and indeed the plots become more confining.

https://www.amazon.com/dp/1599631407/?tag=pfamazon01-20

Let your imagination soar. Carry on.
Tell that to the Speculative Evolution Forum.
 
  • #11
I think it’s best to close this thread as we have tried to answer an unanswerable question that only the OP can answer.

Take care
Jedi
 

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