What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the key factors influencing the outcome of the 2008 Presidential Election between Barack Obama and John McCain. Participants explore various demographic influences, polling data, and the potential impact of vice presidential selections on voter behavior. The scope includes electoral strategies, demographic analysis, and the significance of state-level electoral votes.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation
  • Exploratory

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants highlight the importance of Hispanic votes in New Mexico, questioning their overall impact due to the state's small electoral vote count.
  • There are discussions about the total number of eligible voters, noting that eligible Hispanic and Black voters are significantly fewer than White voters.
  • Some participants express skepticism about Obama's ability to rally the Hispanic vote without a Hispanic running mate or specific immigration policies.
  • Concerns are raised regarding the potential backlash from anti-immigration voters if Obama were to choose a Hispanic VP, suggesting it could harm his campaign.
  • Polling data is shared, showing varying predictions for electoral votes, with some suggesting Obama has a lead while others indicate a more competitive race.
  • Participants discuss the potential influence of vice presidential candidates on the election, particularly in relation to demographic appeal and electoral strategy.
  • Some express uncertainty about the electoral college system and its implications for the election outcome, particularly regarding the significance of state-level electoral votes.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views on the importance of demographic factors and polling data, with no clear consensus on the best strategy for either candidate. The discussion remains unresolved regarding the potential effectiveness of various electoral strategies.

Contextual Notes

There are limitations in the discussion regarding the reliability of polling data and the evolving nature of voter demographics, which may not fully capture the current political landscape.

Who May Find This Useful

Individuals interested in electoral strategies, demographic influences on voting behavior, and the dynamics of the 2008 Presidential Election may find this discussion relevant.

Who will win the General Election?

  • Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 16 50.0%

  • Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%

  • McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 4 12.5%

  • McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%
  • Total voters
    32
  • #1,231
Politico said:
It’s official: McCain wins Missouri
By ANDY BARR | 11/19/08 5:17 PM EST

The Associated Press on Wednesday declared John McCain the winner in Missouri, the last undecided state of the 2008 presidential election.

The race had been too close to call in the two weeks since Election Day, with McCain holding a slim lead. Heading into last weekend, McCain held a roughly 5,000-vote lead with tens of thousands of ballots remaining uncounted. The final margin of victory was 3,632 votes, out of over 2.9 million cast.

With Missouri’s 11 electoral votes going to McCain, the final electoral vote tally stands at 365 for Obama to 173 for McCain.
http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15802.html
 
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  • #1,232
Heh, who would have thought that Obama would win Indiana, but lose Mo?
 
  • #1,233
Will any other party than D and R ever stand a chance in American election?
 
  • #1,234
leopard said:
Will any other party than D and R ever stand a chance in American election?
Not if no one will vote for them. Would you want a party to succeed if no one voted for them. Did you vote for any other party than D and R this time around?
 
  • #1,235
We always know long before the election that a third party candidate has no chance of winning.

Who were we going to vote for, Nader - the guy who has philosophical discussions with his parrot? Or Bob Barr, nutjob? Not ready for prime time Paul? If there was a viable choice, a third party candidate might have a chance [provided that he's not up against a phenomenon like Obama].

I went door to door collecting sigs to get Perot on the ballot, but in the end, he was a nut.
 
  • #1,236
I think for a party to take root it needs more than a cult of personality - it needs a movement.

I think that's where the more recent parties have sprung from - Perot, Anderson, Wallace, Nader. I suspect they are doomed to failure. As I recall not even Teddy Roosevelt and the Bull Moose were able to win with just the force of his personality, though I think they managed more than Taft and the Republicans.

Given that the Republican identity has in recent decades become so entangled with the extreme Christian Right agenda - which has apparently been repudiated in this last election - I doubt that without abandoning their more extreme agendas, and accepting more reasonable standards as regards social issues like rights of gays and abortion they will only serve to marginalize themselves further.
 
  • #1,237
I supported Mike Gravel.
 
  • #1,238
leopard said:
I supported Mike Gravel.

Gravel was much too coarse for me.
 
  • #1,239
Ivan Seeking said:
Gravel was much too coarse for me.
Sandy Berger wasn't running - not much choice over coarseness.
 
  • #1,240
Ivan Seeking said:
Gravel was much too coarse for me.

I respect that, but I vote for politicians, not charismatic persons.
 
  • #1,241
leopard said:
I respect that, but I vote for politicians, not charismatic persons.

It was a joke.

Still, like Paul and Perot, he is not Presidential material, IMO. I think he got about two votes!
 
  • #1,242
leopard said:
Will any other party than D and R ever stand a chance in American election?

Well, the R is about to disintegrate in a C and a M...
 

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