Who will win the popular vote and by what margin?

[Gokul43201]

Looks like all states have been finally called (at least sort of). The table below lists the final outcomes. MO goes to McCain and NC to Obama. Ignore Nebraska's 2nd Congressional district.

    * Alabama                R 
    * Alaska                 R 
    * Arizona                R 
    * Arkansas               R 
    * California             D 
    * Colorado               D 
    * Connecticut            D 
    * Delaware               D 
    * District of Columbia   D 
    * Florida                D 
    * Georgia                R 
    * Hawaii                 D 
    * Idaho                  R 
    * Illinois               D 
    * Indiana                D
    * Iowa                   D 
    * Kansas                 R 
    * Kentucky               R 
    * Louisiana              R 
    * Maine                  D 
    * Maryland               D 
    * Massachusetts          D 
    * Michigan               D 
    * Minnesota              D 
    * Mississippi            R 
    * Missouri               R
    * Montana                R 
    * Nebraska               R 
    * Nevada                 D 
    * New Hampshire          D 
    * New Jersey             D 
    * New Mexico             D 
    * New York               D 
    * North Carolina         D 
    * North Dakota           R 
    * Ohio                   D 
    * Oklahoma               R 
    * Oregon                 D 
    * Pennsylvania           D 
    * Rhode Island           D 
    * South Carolina         R 
    * South Dakota           R 
    * Tennessee              R 
    * Texas                  R 
    * Utah                   R 
    * Vermont                D 
    * Virginia               D 
    * Washington             D 
    * West Virginia          R 
    * Wisconsin              D 
    * Wyoming                R

Compare your own table with the one above and post your score. Remember, you get +1 for every correct prediction, -1 for each wrong guess and 0 for every "no comment".

 

[BobG]

50 correct
1 wrong

score: 49

My guess for difference in popular vote: 4.673%
(Actual was around 6%. I was lucky I picked Obama for all the states I was tempted to leave blank. The true toss-up states shifted just a little into McCain territory.)

 

[LightbulbSun]

44 Correct
6 Wrong

 

[mgb_phys]

Looks like the turnout wasn't the massive record breaker expected - although participation was up among young people, african-americans and democrats it was down among republlicans.

 

[Gokul43201]

Okay, it didn't take long to count, so here are the scores:

phoenixy       48 - 3 = 45
BobG           50 - 1 = 49
LightbulbSun   44 - 7 = 37
check          47 - 4 = 43
cyrus          (0-50)!~-10[sup]65[/sup]
Evo            49 - 2 = 47
vociferous     44 - 7 = 37    
Orbital Power  49 - 2 = 47
cristo         49 - 2 = 47
Ivan Seeking   49 - 2 = 47
Astronuc       46 - 5 = 41
LowlyPion      49 - 2 = 47

If I haven't made any mistakes in my quick count, this makes BobG the winner.

Sir BobG. I dub thee: Electoral Geek 2008.

Also, just for fun, the popular vote margin currently appears to be 6.24% (+/- 0.02%). The following are the errors in the popular vote margin estimates (a positive error indicates an overestimate of the Obama-Biden margin):

phoenixy       +2.65%
BobG           -1.57%
LightbulbSun   -1.24%
check          +2.81%
Evo            -2.40%
vociferous     -4.24%    
Orbital Power  -0.88%
cristo         +0.52%
Ivan Seeking   +0.96%
Astronuc      >+3.76%
LowlyPion      +0.03%

LowlyPion, coming incredibly close to the current popular vote margin, earns the eponym: Popular Geek 2008

 

[LowlyPion]

My guesses were luckier than I knew.

I missed 2 states - 1 by about 9Kvotes and the other by about 26K votes and I missed the margin total by 29K votes. Both won by Obama.

I suppose my best claim can say that Obama got 29K more voters out than I was guessing and I am more than pleased to have missed in that direction for the sake of the country.

The New York Times has an intriguing map that shows the Δ vote % between 2008 and 2004. It is a most revealing country wide map. If I were to guess where race may have made a difference ...

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html

Check out Voting Shifts.

The other views are interesting as well, but the Voting Shifts shows how across the board he changed things.

 

[lisab]

My guesses were luckier than I knew.

I missed 2 states - 1 by about 9Kvotes and the other by about 26K votes and I missed the margin total by 29K votes. Both won by Obama.

I suppose my best claim can say that Obama got 29K more voters out than I was guessing and I am more than pleased to have missed in that direction for the sake of the country.

The New York Times has an intriguing map that shows the Δ vote % between 2008 and 2004. It is a most revealing country wide map. If I were to guess where race may have made a difference ...

http://elections.nytimes.com/2008/results/president/map.html

Check out Voting Shifts.

The other views are interesting as well, but the Voting Shifts shows how across the board he changed things.

Wow - once you're on Voting Shifts, slide the year around...love that blue!

 

[Gokul43201]

The thing I found particularly interesting in those maps is how much, it appears, that Arkansans love the Clinton family. The red all over Arkansas (compared to 2004) seems most likely explained by disappointment and anger over the Clinton primary loss causing Dems there to vote for McCain or abstain.

 

[LowlyPion]

The thing I found particularly interesting in those maps is how much, it appears, that Arkansans love the Clinton family. The red all over Arkansas (compared to 2004) seems most likely explained by disappointment and anger over the Clinton primary loss causing Dems there to vote for McCain or abstain.

That is a good point. It would be interesting to compare those numbers to Clinton elections even. I'm sure that Clinton did better than Kerry and Gore there - without looking I think he won them and Gore and Kerry not. But that the shift would be even to more than Bush there for McCain must be saying something. And maybe disappointment about Hilary is it, but she's a New Yorker now so I don't really know how devoted to her they might still be. Though as far as that goes I think she would have won it in the general election if she had been the nominee.

 

[check]

Other prediction (just for fun/bragging rights): Voter turnout will be 61%.

Well, at least I got that right.

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.co...turnout-same-or-only-slightly-higher-than-04/