The situation is, I purchase an insurance for loss of a package during shipment, the insurance fee is 0.5% of the claimed actual value of the package, but this is optional, you don't need to purchase insurance but you will not get compensated if the package is lost.. Assume that the shipping company is not intended to earn money through the insurance, and they only use the insurance fee collected to pay for the loss of the package of other customers. What is the probability of losing a package? Is it also not higher than 0.5% ? Is it that simple?