Just a point, even without disputing the validity of your argument.
Physics Monkey said:
I predict that we won't need string theory to understand what's going on for a long time
I think that the orthodoxy, or at least Witten et alikes, do not expect string theory to be the main piece.
Lets take Weinberg's volume three. He explains that Supergravity forces the existence of a tensor A_{MNR} in 11 dimensions, and that this tensor has two roles:
- it stabilizes the compactification to 4+7 dimensions.
- its sources, via the "generalisation" of maxwell equations, are not charged point particles, not charged strings, but charged membranes.
Then Witten approach comes to tell us that when descending from 11, where sugra lives, to 10, where we can formulate chirality, this membrane, ie this source of the 11D tensor implied by supergravity, wraps to build strings, and that this is the object which is being classifiyed in 10D.
And then the usual lore.
But strings as fundamental objects are not there. What is fundamental is n-dimensional supersymmetry. In turn, you can look for mathematical uniqueness of this structure, n-supersymmetry, via Evans interpretation (as division algebras) or Duff "Brane scan"