What do we know about the future of Yellowstone and Long Valley Calderas?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers on the Yellowstone and Long Valley Calderas, exploring their potential for future catastrophic eruptions, the nature of such eruptions, and the challenges in forecasting volcanic activity. Participants raise questions about the geological characteristics of calderas, the implications of magma activity, and the uncertainties surrounding eruption predictions.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants question the current state of the Yellowstone Caldera, with references to it possibly being "dying" yet still having potential for a catastrophic eruption.
  • There is speculation about the eruption cycle of the Yellowstone Caldera, with some suggesting it could be overdue based on historical eruption intervals, while others argue that the cycle is not strictly predictable.
  • Concerns are raised about the signs of an impending eruption, with some suggesting that observable signs may not be definitive indicators of a major event.
  • Participants discuss the implications of drilling into magma chambers, with one expressing doubts about the accuracy of reported depths and the potential consequences of such actions.
  • There is a debate regarding the legal and moral ramifications of attempting to relieve pressure in a caldera, highlighting the risks involved in such interventions.
  • Some participants emphasize the uncertainty in predicting volcanic eruptions, noting that historical data provides limited predictive power.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of views on the potential for future eruptions and the reliability of current predictive models. There is no consensus on the likelihood of an eruption occurring in the near future or the validity of the 600,000-year cycle.

Contextual Notes

Participants acknowledge the limitations of current knowledge regarding caldera activity, including the challenges in interpreting signs of potential eruptions and the variability in historical eruption patterns.

hammertime
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I have a few questions about calderas, specifically, the Yellowstone and Long Valley Calderas.

I read in http://environment.newscientist.com...-only-lukewarm.html?feedId=online-news_rss20" that the Yellowstone Caldera could be dying, but may have enough juice left for one "catastrophic" eruption. What would the nature of that eruption be?

Also, what are the odds of either the Long Valley or Yellowstone Calderas causing a catastrophic eruption in our lifetimes (say, the next 100 years)? I've heard that the Yellowstone one is on a 600,000 year cycle and its last eruption was 650,000 years ago. So does that mean we can expect another catastrophe from it soon?

Is there any way for us to forecast when these supereruptions will come?
 
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I'm pretty sure "caldera" is the physical shape left after a huge volcano eruption—the volcano is not a caldera. The caldera is the mark it made, like a crater after a meteor.
 


hammertime said:
I have a few questions about calderas, specifically, the Yellowstone and Long Valley Calderas.

I read in http://environment.newscientist.com...-only-lukewarm.html?feedId=online-news_rss20" that the Yellowstone Caldera could be dying, but may have enough juice left for one "catastrophic" eruption. What would the nature of that eruption be?

Also, what are the odds of either the Long Valley or Yellowstone Calderas causing a catastrophic eruption in our lifetimes (say, the next 100 years)? I've heard that the Yellowstone one is on a 600,000 year cycle and its last eruption was 650,000 years ago. So does that mean we can expect another catastrophe from it soon?

Is there any way for us to forecast when these supereruptions will come?

I think that if an eruption is immanent, we will see signs. It is unclear how extreme the signs need be before we conclude it will erupt. The problem is that yellowstone is active, and is always showing signs of activity some of which are in short cycles, smaller eruptions happen too, so even if we know something is going to happen, we don't know if it is just a hickup or if it will be the real thing. Another problem is that we have never observed a super volcano erupt so we don't know what the signs will be exactly. It is possible that the extreme signs will happen only moments before total destruction, then again maybe it will be slow and will swell up like a bee sting before it goes. It is tough because it would be an economic disaster to evacuate half the nation and then nothing big happens.
 
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Everything about Caldera forming volcanism here:

http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/bookdescription.cws_home/714660/description#description

It is believed that such an eruption would be announced by an uplift of the surface due to the increasing magna mass below.

http://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/2005/3024/fs2005-3024.pdf

Sometimes it is speculated that the Yellowstone volcano is overdue after 640,000 years of dormancy, however seeing eruptions 2.1 million years ago 13.0 million years ago and 0.64 million years ago it could easily be another 100,000 years and it still being in the "regular" cycle, there is simply nothing to predict here.
 


I've read that the magma in the caldera is, at some places, as little as 5 meters below the surface. If one were to access that magma with a drill or explosive, so as to relieve the pressure, could that lead to an eruption?
 


I read some where that if the (roof) of a caldera collapsed it could trigger an eruption,
not saying the whole area of the caldera, just a significant portion.
 


hammertime said:
I've read that the magma in the caldera is, at some places, as little as 5 meters below the surface. If one were to access that magma with a drill or explosive, so as to relieve the pressure, could that lead to an eruption?

I think 5 may have been a misprint. I doubt very very much that it's an accurate figure.
No one has ever tried to drill into an active magma chamber before. I can't really speculate too much on whether it would be possible or what the effect would be.
Think of the legal (and moral) problems surrounding it though. We currently have no indications that the volcano will undergo a major eruption within any of our lifetimes. What if we drilled into it and it blankets a whole state in ash, destroys homes and displaces people as a result? Every one of those people could argue that as an eruption wasn't forecast, it is the drillers fault they lost their homes, property, crops etc. Each one of them would need to be reimbursed and compensated. Things are tricky enough with cases related to cloud seeding causing damaging hailstorms, or the Sidoarjo Mudflow Which are relatively small compared to the effects of an eruption
 


hammertime said:
I've read that the magma in the caldera is, at some places, as little as 5 meters below the surface.

More like 500 meters, not 5 meters.
 


Andre said:
Sometimes it is speculated that the Yellowstone volcano is overdue after 640,000 years of dormancy, however seeing eruptions 2.1 million years ago 13.0 million years ago and 0.64 million years ago it could easily be another 100,000 years and it still being in the "regular" cycle, there is simply nothing to predict here.

Exactly. About all one can say from these data is that it's likely that Yellowstone may erupt sometime, but the alleged "cycle" of "about 600,000 to 800,000 years" is only an "order of magnitude" estimate.

One cannot say much more from these data, other than based on the past three data points, it is probably unlikely that Yellowstone would have erupted any sooner than ~70,000 years after the last eruption, and it's also probably unlikely that it will wait as long as ~7,000,000 years until the next eruption (unless of course the mantle plume feeding it has died...). That's about as close to "zero predictive power" as one can get while saying anything at all... :/
 

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