What is Conditional Probability and its Properties?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers on the concept of conditional probability and its properties, including definitions, mathematical formulations, and proofs related to probability theory. Participants explore theoretical aspects and seek clarification on specific probability relationships.

Discussion Character

  • Technical explanation, Conceptual clarification, Homework-related, Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • One participant defines conditional probability and presents its formula, P(E|F) = (E∩F)/P(F) for events E and F.
  • Another participant outlines several properties of conditional probability, including the certainty of P(S|F) and P(F|F) being equal to 1.
  • It is noted that if A and B are events and F is an event with P(F) ≠ 0, then P((A∪B)|F) can be expressed in terms of P(A|F) and P(B|F), with a special case for disjoint events.
  • A property stating that P(E'|F) = 1 - P(E|F) is also mentioned, based on the disjoint nature of events E and E'.
  • Several participants inquire about proving the equation P(A∪B) = P(A∩B) + P(A∩B') + P(A'∩B), indicating a desire for deeper understanding or validation of this relationship.
  • There is a suggestion to use a Venn diagram to illustrate the proof of the aforementioned equation.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express various viewpoints on the properties of conditional probability, but there is no consensus on the proofs or the specific questions raised regarding the relationships between events.

Contextual Notes

The discussion includes mathematical expressions and properties that may depend on specific definitions or assumptions about the events and sample spaces involved. Some proofs remain unaddressed or unresolved.

CaptainX
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TL;DR
1. Definition
2. Properties of conditional probability
1. Definition
If E and F are two events associated with the same sample space of a random experment, the conditional probability of the event E given that F has occurred, i.e. P(E|F) is given by
P(E|F) = (E∩F)/P(F) (P≠0)

2. Properties of conditional probability
Let E and F be events of sample space S of an experiment, then we have

2.1 Property 1
P(S|F) = P(F|F) = 1
we know that
P(S|F) = P(S∩F)/P(F) = P(F)/P(F) =1
similiarly, P(F|F)= 1
P(F|F) = P(S|F) = 1

2.2 Property 2
If A and B are any two events of a sample space S and F is an event of S s.t. P(F) ≠ 0, then
P((A∪B)|F) = P(A|F) + P(B|F) -P((A∩B)|F)
In particular, if A and B are disjoint events, then
P((A∪B)|F)=P(A|F)+P(B|F)

2.3 Property 3
P(E'|F) = 1 - P(E|F)
Since S=E∪E' and E and E' are disjoint events.
 
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What is the question?
 
How to prove P(A∪B)=P(A∩B)+P(A∩B')+P(A'∩B)
 
CaptainX said:
How to prove P(A∪B)=P(A∩B)+P(A∩B')+P(A'∩B)
Try to draw a Venn diagram.
 
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