- #1

borson

- 30

- 0

Okay I am a bit naïve on this, and also this question may seem a bit strange. But here it goes.

Let's say that a mechanic roulette throws the ball at different preprogrammed velocities.

Each velocity will lead to a determined final time, that is, the time at which the ball leaves the stator to fall into the wheel. These different final times are recorded and the data gathered.

we see then, that there are 2 possible time intervals. The data also shows that the likelihood of one is slightly higher than the another's.

Let's say that the likelihood of the former interval is 30%. It is also remarkable to mention, that that roulette has a bias, so the ball leaves the stator always at the same place, that is, within the same space interval.

Next, in real game we'll clock/time the rotor to find out its speed, and thus we'll figure out which numbers are going to be in the space interval during that time interval. In overall, we'd bet on 12 numbers each spin.

So here my question comes. If the frecuency (probability) at which that time interval turns out is 30%, it means that at least I should win 30% of the times. But... the likelihood of betting on 12 numbers in a European roulette is 12/37=32%!. Does this mean that by using this method my chances of winning are only decreasing? or I should combine both probabilities? Or what does it mean?

Thank you all!