- #1
Roulette
- 2
- 0
Hello I have a basic but quite difficult question about roulette probabilities (assuming roulette has 37 numbers 0-36). I need a general formula for calculating the probability of an event, given specific parameters:
We need to calculate the probability P(e) of the event E = [Bet B appearing X times in N trials(ie. spins) ]
We know:
N= the numbers of spins
X=the number of times a specific bet wins/appears in those N trials (spins)
P(b) = the probability of bet B for a single spin/trial.
How do we calculate the probability of [Bet B appearing X times in N trials(spins) ]?
For example what is the probability of a specific number appearing exactly 1 time in 37 spins, given it’s probability is 1/37?
What’s the formula?
Can we in the same way calculate, let’s say the probability of 12 specific numbers (probability 12/37) coming 2 times in 5 spins etc.?
I have tried to devise a formula which you can see here: http://www.roulette30.com/2014/01/calculating-probability-roulette.html
P(e) = (n!/(x!(n-x)!)) P(b)^x
But I think it is incorrect since it gives an extremely low probability of a specific number appearing exactly 1 time in 37 spins.
Maybe this is the correct formula?
P(e) = (n!/(x!(n-x)!)) P(b)^x (1-P(b))^n-x
But this again gives an extremely low probability of a specific number appearing exactly 1 time in 37 spins, if my calculations are correct.
Thanks in advance.
We need to calculate the probability P(e) of the event E = [Bet B appearing X times in N trials(ie. spins) ]
We know:
N= the numbers of spins
X=the number of times a specific bet wins/appears in those N trials (spins)
P(b) = the probability of bet B for a single spin/trial.
How do we calculate the probability of [Bet B appearing X times in N trials(spins) ]?
For example what is the probability of a specific number appearing exactly 1 time in 37 spins, given it’s probability is 1/37?
What’s the formula?
Can we in the same way calculate, let’s say the probability of 12 specific numbers (probability 12/37) coming 2 times in 5 spins etc.?
I have tried to devise a formula which you can see here: http://www.roulette30.com/2014/01/calculating-probability-roulette.html
P(e) = (n!/(x!(n-x)!)) P(b)^x
But I think it is incorrect since it gives an extremely low probability of a specific number appearing exactly 1 time in 37 spins.
Maybe this is the correct formula?
P(e) = (n!/(x!(n-x)!)) P(b)^x (1-P(b))^n-x
But this again gives an extremely low probability of a specific number appearing exactly 1 time in 37 spins, if my calculations are correct.
Thanks in advance.