What is the probability of my poker room's bad beat?

  • Level: High School 
  • Thread starter Thread starter ordered_chaos
  • Start date Start date
  • Tags Tags
    Probability
Join the discussion
Registration is free. Start your own thread to ask a follow-up.
Sign up Log in
2 replies · 3K views
ordered_chaos
Messages
17
Reaction score
0
Quad tens must beat. Both players must use their two hole cards. In texas holdem you're dealt two cards and after several rounds of betting you make a 5 card hand from your two "hole" cards and 5 community cards.

An example of a bad beat is if player one(P1) is dealt 10h/10c and player two (P2) is dealt Js/Jd and the community cards are 10s, 10d, Jh, Jc, 3c; here quad tens is beat by quad jacks.

Another example would be, P1 is dealt 2s/3s and P2 is dealt Ah/Ac and the community cards come out As, 4s, 5s, Ad, 9d; here Quad Aces is beaten by a straight flush.
 
Physics news on Phys.org

Discussion

The question appears to be in title of the thread.

Here is a link to some probabilities for different qualifying hands:
http://wizardofodds.com/games/texas-hold-em/bad-beat-jackpots/

So assuming you have ten players that never fold and Type 3 rules, the probability that your table will hit a bad beat jackpot for quad 10's is 0.00000357 or about 1 in 300,000. Since in reality no one never folds, the actual probability is much smaller than this.