What is the probability of my poker room's bad beat?

  • #1
Quad tens must beat. Both players must use their two hole cards. In texas holdem you're dealt two cards and after several rounds of betting you make a 5 card hand from your two "hole" cards and 5 community cards.

An example of a bad beat is if player one(P1) is dealt 10h/10c and player two (P2) is dealt Js/Jd and the community cards are 10s, 10d, Jh, Jc, 3c; here quad tens is beat by quad jacks.

Another example would be, P1 is dealt 2s/3s and P2 is dealt Ah/Ac and the community cards come out As, 4s, 5s, Ad, 9d; here Quad Aces is beaten by a straight flush.
 

Answers and Replies

  • #2
mathman
Science Advisor
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Do you have a question?
 
  • #3
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The question appears to be in title of the thread.

Here is a link to some probabilities for different qualifying hands:
http://wizardofodds.com/games/texas-hold-em/bad-beat-jackpots/

So assuming you have ten players that never fold and Type 3 rules, the probability that your table will hit a bad beat jackpot for quad 10's is 0.00000357 or about 1 in 300,000. Since in reality no one never folds, the actual probability is much smaller than this.
 

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