What is the true calorie burn for cardiovascular activities?

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I'm trying to figure out the realistic calorie burn for a person involved in a cardiovascular activity. Google helps little, because there are all sorts of wildly ranging numbers and 99% of them are uncited or second- or third-hand. I'd like a scientific source.

Let's assume an untrained male, 5'10", exercising at 85% of max heart rate on a treadmill or a bike trainer.
 
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In "Energy Expenditure of Walking and Running," published last December in Medicine & Science in Sports & Exercise, a group of Syracuse University researchers measured the actual calorie burn of 12 men and 12 women while running and walking 1,600 meters (roughly a mile) on a treadmill. Result: The men burned an average of 124 calories while running, and just 88 while walking; the women burned 105 and 74. (The men burned more than the women because they weighed more.)

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<< link added by Mentor >> http://www.runnersworld.com/article/0,7120,s6-242-304-311-8402-0,00.html
 
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