Alfredo Tifi said:
I believe Hawking is exaggerating in telling us (page 83):
«...the Universe doesn't have just a single history, but every possible history, each with its own probability; and our observations of the current state affect its past and determine the different histories of the Universe, just as the observations of the particles in the double slit experiment affect the particles' past.»
Do you agree?
From the viewpoint of logic and pure mathematics, that's true
by definition!
If we take the (metaphysically) controversial viewpoint that correct physics is organized as mathematics, then what "
exists" in mathematical problems is certain given information and deductions made from that information. So if there are phenomena that (in the sense of common language) "existed" in the past but are not present or deducible from the current "given" information they don't
exist in the sense of being possible subject matter in a mathematical problem. If, from the current given information, we can infer only certain probabilities for a past event, then what exists in the mathematical problem is those probabilities.
(e.g. If we are given only that Bob has 3 apples and Alice has twice as many apples as Bob then how many eggs Bob ate for breakfast does not exist as part of the given information.)
From a classical point of view, one might seek to refute this proof-by-definition experimentally by secretly recording some event and then arguing the contradiction that some other physicist would later treat the event as non-existent. However, the total information for that experiment includes the fact that the event was recorded by us.
From a classical point of view, one could argue from (empirical) induction that observed trees that fall make a sound and have other effects - therefore unobserved trees that fall make sounds and have similar effects even if these effects are unknown in our present state of knowledge. That gives the philosophical satisfaction of being able to say that the past includes "definite but unknown" events. From the mathematical point of view, that affects the existence of given information insofar as axioms based on such an induction add to what can be deduced.
I'll distinguish 3 definitions for the "existence" of the past - or anything else
1) The common language meaning - whatever that is!
2) Existence in the sense of specific given or deducible information in a mathematical problem
3) Existence in the mathematical sense of "given but unknown" (e.g. There exists an x such that...) This would include contexts where a mathematical theory has axioms about unobserved events having definite outcomes etc.
In the sense of 2), the quotation above says that information about the current state of the universe does not allow us to deduce a unique past history, so that unique history does not exist (as given information) in any correct physical theory. Whether the author of that quotation had this interpretation in mind, I don't know.
In the sense of 3) the quotation would assert that a mathematical theory of physics that assumes the past has a definite but unknown state is self contradictory or, at best, no better than a theory that omits such an assumption.