Which field will thrive and which will die?

[hadron23]

Hello All,

I am currently a Master's student studying electrical engineering, specifically statistical signal processing and stochastic control. My work during my degree so far has primarily been applied to radar systems and the defence industry in general. I will be graduating next spring and I am faced with a decision. I can either continue on with a PhD on the defence stuff, or I can change gears and work on applying my research to finance (both use very similar mathematical tools, and skills are fairly interchangeable). My question to all of you is which of the two fields (defence or finance) will have more jobs in 3-4 years time? Which field allows the most career growth? Which has the highest compensation? What is a more rewarding career?

My hunch is that the defence industry will go through a significant change in the near future. Conventional wars are expensive (one just needs to look at the main causes of the recent economic crisis for evidence of this) and traditional techniques of defence will no longer be as applicable. My knowledge in target tracking and stochastic filtering may be 'old news' by the time I get a PhD. However, I'm not sure finance will be thriving either. Most people these days have lost a lot of faith in the so-called financial models that are supposed to predict economic crises that we have seen in the past decade. However, I have heard that compensation is quite good in the financial world.

I'd like to hear your opinions on this topic.

Thanks

 

[twofish-quant]

My question to all of you is which of the two fields (defence or finance) will have more jobs in 3-4 years time? Which field allows the most career growth? Which has the highest compensation? What is a more rewarding career?

I don't know, and frankly I don't trust anyone that claims to know. If you want to have any clue what the defense budget will be in 2015, you'd have to predict the 2012 presidential election and the 2014 mid-terms, and also know what the DJIA will be in 2015.

One rule that I have is never get a Ph.D., unless you'd be happy with a Ph.D. If you go for a Ph.D., you'll have a reasonable hope of getting a Ph.D. That way if the Vogon destructor fleet decides to vaporize the Earth in 2015, you can think to yourself, "Oh well, bummer that the world is ending, but at least I finished my Ph.D."

However, I'm not sure finance will be thriving either. Most people these days have lost a lot of faith in the so-called financial models that are supposed to predict economic crises that we have seen in the past decade.

Financial models are rarely predictive. In fact, most quantitative financial models start out with the assumption that the future *cannot* be predicted. There is some work on models that try to predict the stock and bond market, but their prediction times are in *seconds*.

I'd like to hear your opinions on this topic.

Right now, I'm listening very closely to John Boehner to see what his plans are. Also I'm interested in what the Tea Party and the Republican Right thinks about science funding, although it's rather difficult for me to have a conversation about science funding with someone that thinks that the world is 6000 year old, but it looks like that's going to be necessary.

Personally, I'm rather depressed since I personally think that the agenda of the new Congress is going to totally cripple the United States, and it's one of those times when I think to myself that I hope that I'm wrong about how the world works.

Oh well, if the Tea Party completely destroys America, at least I finished my Ph.D. :-) :-) :-)

 

[fss]

My question to all of you is which of the two fields (defence or finance) will have more jobs in 3-4 years time? Which field allows the most career growth? Which has the highest compensation? What is a more rewarding career?

1. Who knows.
2. Depends on how lucky you get.
3. Depends on the job you wind up in.
4. Personal preference.

My hunch is that the defence industry will go through a significant change in the near future.

The defense industry is always changing.

Conventional wars are expensive (one just needs to look at the main causes of the recent economic crisis for evidence of this) and traditional techniques of defence will no longer be as applicable.

...and unconventional wars aren't? The United States hasn't been involved in an extended "conventional" war since Vietnam. Iraq and Afghanistan aren't coming cheap.

My knowledge in target tracking and stochastic filtering may be 'old news' by the time I get a PhD.

Target tracking and stochastic filtering will never be outdated in the defense industry. Well, until there are either no more targets or our enemies decide to sit in one place until they are neutralized.