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Lets pretend its a question very doubtful the majority of the audience would know.

I was thinking Audience first since they have more choices to pick from..with 50-50 its just a coin toss then.

What do you guys think?

- Thread starter Wi_N
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- #1

- 119

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Lets pretend its a question very doubtful the majority of the audience would know.

I was thinking Audience first since they have more choices to pick from..with 50-50 its just a coin toss then.

What do you guys think?

- #2

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Are the questions yes/no or multiple choice?

Lets pretend its a question very doubtful the majority of the audience would know.

I was thinking Audience first since they have more choices to pick from..with 50-50 its just a coin toss then.

What do you guys think?

- #3

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4 choices to every question. Ask the Audience they vote on which answer is the correct one and you see a chart of what they picked. 50-50 eliminates 2 wrong answers so you're left with 2 choices.Are the questions yes/no or multiple choice?

- #4

Borek

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- #5

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- #6

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I feel like you should always regardless of the question ask the audience first then 50-50. thats the debate really.

- #7

fresh_42

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Economists use the concept of subjective probabilities. I think there can be made some fundamental assumptions, depending on the stage of the required answer, as they get steadily harder per round. Those estimations can be made by several resources: analyses of former games, polls, statistics, experiences etc. E.g. I doubt that 50:50 can be assumed. Also does a selective audience joker heavily depend on the question: "Who won this years superbowl?" will probably result in quite good quotes in either case, whereas "Who wrote The Millionairess?" would have better chances in a selection of a single person than in the group. And next, it's an application of Bayes.

It is a real life example. The fact that it isn't perfect in a mathematical sense, doesn't make the question un-mathematical. It is just a confrontation of theory with reality!

- #8

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A good point. Thanks.It is a real life example. The fact that it isn't perfect in a mathematical sense, doesn't make the question un-mathematical. It is just a confrontation of theory with reality!

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- #10

fresh_42

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Again, it depends on the question, resp. round. The audience joker is usually of not much help on question 10 but almost a certain bet at stage 1. Fifty-fifty ahead of any other jokers is of course better than without. The game also reflects personal risk aversions, so you should try to figure out your personal risk function variance(expectation value) first. So to answer your question without any further knowledge, you will have to state some probabilities for correct answers first, i.e. make some assumptions.

- #11

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If you use the 50/50 lifeline first, then the audience is left with just two choices. But remember, a certain percentage of the audience are those that would have chosen one of the least probable answers when given 4 choices, so can you really rely on them to choose correctly between the remaining two?

- #12

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my "conjecture" is that you should always pick the audience first regardless of the question. if its an easy question well the audience will show you the answer and then the 50-50 will solidify the answer. if its a hard question you run the risk of people just guessing and with 2 options to guess between if you pick 50-50 first there is a big probability/almost certainty that both choices will have equal amount of votes unless you add the fact that some of the audience knows the answer and the rest will pick/guess at random so one of the choices will have (people that know + guessers) vs (just guessers) and the right answer will get more votes.

if you pick the audience first with the hard question there is more of a scatter with their votes and you can actually perhaps decipher the guessers from the people that actually know, there is more data there to make a sound choice.

i dont know if im right im really torn on this. but im sure there IS a mathematical blueprint for which of these options is more sound regardless of the question.

Edit: Im changing my conjecture, you should pick 50-50 first then the audience. you will get guessers+people that know vs just guessers. the right option will always get more votes.

edit2: if you let the audience vote first and the majority pick the wrong answer and then after 50-50 you get 2 choices with the least amount of votes it would have been shown that it would have been detrimental if you did a 50-50 first and that wrong choice was not removed and then the same majority voted for the wrong choice. hmmm this is very hard. but im certain there is an answer to this.

if you pick the audience first with the hard question there is more of a scatter with their votes and you can actually perhaps decipher the guessers from the people that actually know, there is more data there to make a sound choice.

i dont know if im right im really torn on this. but im sure there IS a mathematical blueprint for which of these options is more sound regardless of the question.

Edit: Im changing my conjecture, you should pick 50-50 first then the audience. you will get guessers+people that know vs just guessers. the right option will always get more votes.

edit2: if you let the audience vote first and the majority pick the wrong answer and then after 50-50 you get 2 choices with the least amount of votes it would have been shown that it would have been detrimental if you did a 50-50 first and that wrong choice was not removed and then the same majority voted for the wrong choice. hmmm this is very hard. but im certain there is an answer to this.

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- #13

fresh_42

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See also the subsections:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem#Derivation

and

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem#Extended_form

- #14

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thank you! will look into it.

See also the subsections:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem#Derivation

and

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bayes'_theorem#Extended_form

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If it's a hard question, by using Ask the Audience first, as you said, will spread out the "guessers" and the right answer should get more chances to get a higher vote %, than if there were 2 choices only. Even if there are trickster choices that make it look like it's the right answer, which leads most guessers to choose it, these tend to stay after the 50-50, so it'd be still better to go for Ask the Audience first, where at least some of the guessers would still be spread out by the other 2 wrong choices.

One advantage in choosing 50-50 first would be that some people could be undecided between one wrong choice and the right choice, and with the 50-50, the wrong one could be eliminated and they'd guess the right choice. Others could also be sure that one of the choices wasn't certainly right, and if that one stayed after the 50-50, they would then also guess the right one. But again, the 50-50 almost always keeps the 2 strongest choices, so I'd still go for Ask the Audience first and 50-50 afterward.

Using Ask the Audience first would still be better, the amount of guessers on a hard question will be too high to get any statistically significant result with only 2 choices.Edit: Im changing my conjecture, you should pick 50-50 first then the audience. you will get guessers+people that know vs just guessers. the right option will always get more votes.

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To understand why, imagine first that there are 100 choices for the answer, instead of 4. The 50 50 in this case eliminates all options except for one wrong one and one right one. By asking the audience first, all the guesses are spread among the 99 wrong answers, and the knowledgeable people will visibly pool into one answer. You won't need many people to know the answer in order to identify the correct choice. The 50 50 will then give you the final confirmation you need.

If you went 50 50 first, the guessers will be more influential by the time it comes to Ask the audience. You would need a lot more people to know the answer in order to outweigh the guessers when there are only two options.

All the same logic applies when there are 4 choices in the question, just with a lower level of advantage.

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