Who Will Win the Presidential Election? Predict and See!

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SUMMARY

This forum discussion centers on predicting the outcome of the presidential election, specifically focusing on the electoral college and popular vote percentages. Participants share their predictions, with notable guesses including Hillary Clinton at 291 electoral votes and 48.8% of the popular vote, and Donald Trump at 279 electoral votes and 47%. The discussion emphasizes the importance of including electoral college votes in predictions and draws parallels to the Brexit polling inaccuracies. The thread concludes with a reminder that the game will close after the election results are announced.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of the U.S. electoral college system
  • Familiarity with popular vote dynamics
  • Knowledge of historical election outcomes and polling trends
  • Awareness of political forecasting techniques
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the impact of electoral college votes on presidential elections
  • Learn about the significance of popular vote percentages in election outcomes
  • Examine case studies of polling inaccuracies, such as the Brexit referendum
  • Explore political forecasting models and their methodologies
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Political analysts, election forecasters, and anyone interested in understanding electoral dynamics and predicting election outcomes.

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Let's see who can predict the future best! Reply to this thread with who you think will win (so not who you want to win). You can add a small justification if you like, but please do not get into a political discussion.

Add the results of the electoral college and of the popular vote of the winner (in percentage) too. The closest one wins!
 
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The parallels with Brexit are hard to ignore. I'm not too certain about it, but I think Trump will win.
 
Wouldn't it make sense to insert a vote in the OP? It won't prevent participants to also comment their opinion.
 
How about if people also put their guesses for the number of electorial college votes received by the winner?
I'm guessing that Hillary will win with about 335 and 48.7% of the vote.
 
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Borg said:
How about if people also put their guesses for the number of electorial college votes received by the winner?
Good idea. My guess would be Trump with 279 (47% of the popular vote).
 
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I took my best guess, assuming no poll bias, and got 269-269. That throws the election into the House. I am not 100% sure that the House will vote for Trump. If, for example, one faithless elector were to vote for Mike Pence instead of Donald Trump, the House might well seize on the opportunity.

If one assumes the polls are off by as much as the Brexit polls were, in the Trump direction, it's 201-337 Trump. If it's in the Clinton direction, it's 341-197 Clinton.
 
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See the updated thread: if you want to win, please also predict the electoral college votes and the percentage that the winner gets in the popular vote!
 
As was announced in the POTUS thread, this game will be closed after winner is announced, just FYI.
 
Hillary Clinton, with 291 electoral votes and, say, 48.8% of the popular vote. That's my guess. I'm assuming she'll win Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, but lose Florida. I think that's not too bad an assumption.
 
  • #10
Char. Limit said:
Hillary Clinton, with 291 electoral votes and, say, 48.8% of the popular vote. That's my guess. I'm assuming she'll win Nevada, New Hampshire, and North Carolina, but lose Florida. I think that's not too bad an assumption.
Welcome back! :woot:
 
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  • #11
HC with 286 by 50.85% (HC) : 47.32% (DT)
 
  • #12
HRC with 300 electoral votes.
 
  • #13
Party is over. Thread closed.
 

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