Will we ever communicate with extraterrestial life in a reasonable time frame?

[Frimus]

I see the problem discussed here from a different angle. Instead of asking why the others are not here when we are here, I would ask: Why are we here when the others are not here? Could it be that advanced civilizations in Universe don't last long enough to leave visible traces?

This "eternal question" has surfaced again. See

arXiv:2606.04044

 

[sbrothy]

I think the answer to the "eternal question" is an "eternal questionmark". As you say it resurfaces from time to time (and I'm not innocent as I once read a paper containing a monte carlo simulation of Drake's equation which pretty much said there's a 50/50% chance that we're alone in the observable universe). Of course that's still just guesswork. There must me be someone out there one would think. Check Arthur C. Clarke's "Angels or Apes" argument. It can be found via this thread:

Undergrad Post in thread 'Help us calculate the likelihood an intelligent alien species exists!'

Sep 28, 2024

A probabilistic analysis of the Fermi paradox in terms of the Drake formula: the role of the L factor

Also, this thread.

• sbrothy

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[sbrothy]

Interesting find though! EDIT: Kudos.

 

[Filip Larsen]

Regarding the topic title you could argue that the chance for communication to occur with extra-terrestrial intelligent life in your lifetime is likely significant lower than the chance of just detecting the presence of extra-terrestrial intelligence. Most discussions seem to revolve around detection (or presence, without us necessarily being able to detect it yet) and not so much around communication.

Since the linked paper is about von Neumann probes, I guess your question really is about detection.