Will We Witness a Daytime Visible Supernova in the Near Future?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers on the possibility of witnessing a daytime visible supernova in the near future, exploring historical occurrences, observational data, and the frequency of supernova events in galaxies. The scope includes theoretical considerations and observational challenges related to supernova visibility.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants note that historical supernovae, such as the one in 1054 AD, were visible during the day and speculate about the likelihood of similar events occurring in the near future.
  • One participant suggests that while supernovae occur at a rate of one every 5 to 100 years in typical galaxies, visibility can be affected by dust in the line of sight.
  • Another participant challenges the claim of a supernova occurring every 5 years, citing a lack of observed events in monitored regions of the Milky Way and nearby galaxies over significant time periods.
  • References to specific supernovae, such as SN1987A, are made to illustrate that not all supernovae are visible during the day.
  • There is mention of an astronomer, Rev Bob Evans, who has discovered a significant number of supernovae, suggesting that existing lists of observed supernovae may be incomplete.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the frequency of supernovae and their visibility, with some asserting a higher occurrence rate and others disputing this based on observational data. The discussion remains unresolved regarding the likelihood of a daytime visible supernova occurring soon.

Contextual Notes

Limitations include the dependence on observational data, potential biases in visibility due to cosmic dust, and the incomplete nature of historical records of supernovae.

Sobi
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I have heard that some centuries ago a supernova happened which its light was visible in daytime.according to the observations will have a such supernova in the next few years?
 
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Sobi said:
I have heard that some centuries ago a supernova happened which its light was visible in daytime.according to the observations will have a such supernova in the next few years?
Who knows? There is no was to tell. Could happen tomorrow, could be in a billion years (although likely sooner than that). Since there have been several during recorded history it's likely to happen in an amount of time that is long by human standards (possibly hundreds of years) but very near zero in cosmological time scales.
 
The last daytime one was the 1054AD one that produced the crab nebula
it was particularly noted by Chinese astronomers of the day ( prob many many others around the world)

yeah it could happen again any old time who knows when?
 
Looking at typical galaxies, supernovas in one galaxy occur about somewhere between one every 5 years to one every 100 years.
A lot of them will not be visible to us though if there is dust in the line of sight, which often is the case for our own galaxy.
 
Last edited:
There is no way that there is a supernova every 5 years on average in our galaxy, or even typical galaxies. We have been monitoring about 1/6 of our galaxy visually since 1605 and seen zero. We have been monitoring M31 and M33 on a similar timescale, and since one in M31 - in 1885 - and zero in M33. We have been monitoring the entire galaxy in neutrinos for 30 years and have seen zero core-collapse supernovae. It is difficult to support a rate of once per 50 years: once per 5 is unsupportable.
 

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