Would a worldwide quarantine help? --moved to general discussion

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A two-week worldwide lockdown could significantly reduce Covid-19 transmission, but its effectiveness may be limited by the reality of symptomless spreaders and the potential for non-compliance among the population. While some argue that a lockdown could provide a temporary respite and allow for better preparation for future measures, others believe that repeated lockdowns would lead to diminishing returns and public fatigue. The discussion highlights the importance of vaccination rates, with some expressing skepticism about achieving the necessary immunity levels due to anti-vaccine sentiments. Successful strategies from countries like Taiwan and New Zealand emphasize the need for early interventions and strict border controls, which may not be feasible globally. Ultimately, the conversation underscores the complexity of managing the pandemic and the challenges of implementing effective public health measures.
  • #31
When they say that a vaccine is "90% effective" what is that relative to? If you had a disease that only 50% of the population were vulnerable to, and everyone got the vaccine, would that make 90% of the people immune? Or 95% of the people immune?
 
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  • #32
Algr said:
When they say that a vaccine is "90% effective" what is that relative to? If you had a disease that only 50% of the population were vulnerable to, and everyone got the vaccine, would that make 90% of the people immune? Or 95% of the people immune?
It would appear that they don't overthink such things.

https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-r...ntech-conclude-phase-3-study-covid-19-vaccine
43000 participants​
170 total cases​
162 cases in the placebo group​
8 cases in the vaccine group​

(162 - 8) / 162 * 100% = 95.1%

https://www.nih.gov/news-events/new...s-clinical-trial-nih-moderna-covid-19-vaccine
>30000 participants​
95 total cases​
90 cases in the placebo group​
5 cases in the vaccine group​
(90 - 5) / 90 * 100% = 94.4%
https://www.cdc.gov/csels/dsepd/ss1978/lesson3/section6.html
Vaccine efficacy or vaccine effectiveness​
 
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  • #33
Okay, thanks.

I was thinking of the notorious "lie detector" theoretical where a "90% accurate" lie detector ends up producing more false positives then actual positives. But I'm not sure if that applies here or not.
 
  • #34
Algr said:
Okay, thanks.

I was thinking of the notorious "lie detector" theoretical where a "90% accurate" lie detector ends up producing more false positives then actual positives. But I'm not sure if that applies here or not.
Ha! Please note that I've changed my post, as, while looking at the equation, although the answer came out fairly correct, it didn't strike me as making much sense.
dumb.luck.maths.2020-11-19 at 12.14.31 PM.png
 

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