Chernobyl Dose Model & Estimates

[Lily_94]

Hello all,

I've been tasked with developing a model for dose received from the Chernobyl Accident.

I'm struggling a little to find dose estimates from which I can extrapolate back to find the initial dose received. Does anyone have any references that they can point me towards? I believe there was a dose estimate conducted 3 months, 6 months, and possible either 1 or 3 years after the accident but I'm having difficulty finding this data.

In addition, does anyone have any recommendations on how I should develop this model?

Thanks,
Lily

 

[russ_watters]

Welcome to PF!

What level of schooling is this assignment for?

 

[Lily_94]

Hi Russ,

Thank you! I'm currently in my fourth year, and it's for an undergraduate thesis project.

-Lily

 

[Lily_94]

If anyone has any sources where dose rates in the area and surrounding regions have been published, please let me know!
-Lily

 

[Simon Thomas Rose]

You should watch the documentary "pandoras promise" and the BBC doc horizon "Is nuclear power safe", the BBC one interviews a Russian scientist who compiled the doses v effects. i believe his research is publicly available.
One thing i will add, interestingly people still live in Chernobyl, and the radiation levels are lower than some beaches in south america!
good luck.

 

[Astronuc]

If anyone has any sources where dose rates in the area and surrounding regions have been published, please let me know!
-Lily

The IAEA and various regulatory/research institutions have compiled or issued reports on the Chernobyl event, including the dispersal of radionuclides from the core.
https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/rw/meetings/environ-consequences-report-wm-08.05.pdf
https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/chernobyl.pdf

Major releases from Unit 4 continued for ten days, and included radioactive gases, condensed
aerosols and a large amount of fuel particles.

Large areas of Europe were affected to some degree by the Chernobyl releases. A total of

more than 200 thousand km² in Europe were contaminated with radiocaesium (above 0.04
MBq of ¹³⁷Cs per sq. m) of which 71% is in the three more affected countries, Belarus, Russia

and Ukraine. The deposition was highly heterogeneous; it was strongly influenced by where it
was raining when the contaminated air masses passed. In the mapping of the deposition, ¹³⁷Cs

was chosen because it is easy to measure and of radiological significance. Most of the
strontium and plutonium radioisotopes were deposited close (less than 100 km) to the reactor
due to their being contained within larger particle sizes.

Many of the more important radionuclides in the releases had short physical half lives, whilst
the long-lived radionuclides were released in smaller amounts. Thus, most of the
radionuclides released by the accident have since long decayed away. The releases of
radioactive iodines caused concern immediately after the accident. Due to the emergency
situation and the short half life of ¹³¹I, there were few reliable measurements on the spatial

distribution of deposited radioiodine which is important in determining doses to the thyroid.

Current measurement of ¹²⁹I may assist in estimating ¹³¹I deposition better and thereby

improving thyroid-dose reconstruction.

One could look at basic plume models and see how well they would predict the dispersion and deposition. Many models may be based on a burst release, such that the initial release event is short term, rather than in the case of Chernobyl, the release was over 10 days. Wind direction and speed, and precipitation will add to the inhomogeneity of the dose rate and thus dose.

One can search Google with "IAEA, Chernobyl, dose rates over time" and find plenty of reports. OECD's NEA also has reports.

https://www.oecd-nea.org/rp/chernobyl/
https://www.oecd-nea.org/rp/chernobyl/c04.html

 

[Astronuc]

If anyone has any sources where dose rates in the area and surrounding regions have been published, please let me know!
-Lily

The IAEA and various regulatory/research institutions have compiled or issued reports on the Chernobyl event, including the dispersal of radionuclides from the core.
https://www-ns.iaea.org/downloads/rw/meetings/environ-consequences-report-wm-08.05.pdf
https://www.iaea.org/sites/default/files/chernobyl.pdf

Major releases from Unit 4 continued for ten days, and included radioactive gases, condensed
aerosols and a large amount of fuel particles.

Large areas of Europe were affected to some degree by the Chernobyl releases. A total of

more than 200 thousand km² in Europe were contaminated with radiocaesium (above 0.04
MBq of ¹³⁷Cs per sq. m) of which 71% is in the three more affected countries, Belarus, Russia

and Ukraine. The deposition was highly heterogeneous; it was strongly influenced by where it
was raining when the contaminated air masses passed. In the mapping of the deposition, ¹³⁷Cs

was chosen because it is easy to measure and of radiological significance. Most of the
strontium and plutonium radioisotopes were deposited close (less than 100 km) to the reactor
due to their being contained within larger particle sizes.

Many of the more important radionuclides in the releases had short physical half lives, whilst
the long-lived radionuclides were released in smaller amounts. Thus, most of the
radionuclides released by the accident have since long decayed away. The releases of
radioactive iodines caused concern immediately after the accident. Due to the emergency
situation and the short half life of ¹³¹I, there were few reliable measurements on the spatial

distribution of deposited radioiodine which is important in determining doses to the thyroid.

Current measurement of ¹²⁹I may assist in estimating ¹³¹I deposition better and thereby

improving thyroid-dose reconstruction.

One could look at basic plume models and see how well they would predict the dispersion and deposition. Many models may be based on a burst release, such that the initial release event is short term, rather than in the case of Chernobyl, the release was over 10 days. Wind direction and speed, and precipitation will add to the inhomogeneity of the dose rate and thus dose.

One can search Google with "IAEA, Chernobyl, dose rates over time" and find plenty of reports. OECD's NEA also has reports.

https://www.oecd-nea.org/rp/chernobyl/
https://www.oecd-nea.org/rp/chernobyl/c04.html

 

[Lily_94]

Thanks a bunch for the references! I will definitely take a look at them in detail.

I should have perhaps clarified; I'm not going to be modelling the dose over time delivered; I simply needed to find the data and then estimate what the initial dose received was (this is what I'm looking for, to be used in experiments). For example, what was the initial, acute dose delivered as a result of Chernobyl in the surrounding area?

Thanks