The recent study titled "A surrogate ensemble study of climate reconstruction methods: Stochasticity and robustness" reveals significant insights into climate reconstruction techniques. It establishes that all methods exhibit substantial stochasticity, making it impossible to draw definitive conclusions from limited realizations. The study indicates a systematic underestimation of low-frequency variability trends by 20–50%, while the shape of this variability is generally well reconstructed. This research challenges the reliability of the Mann curve, also known as the 'hockey stick' curve, and emphasizes the need for a nuanced understanding of anthropogenic climate effects.
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Reconstruction of the Earth's surface temperature from proxy data is an important task because of the need to compare recent changes with past variability. However, the statistical properties and robustness of climate reconstruction methods are not well known, which has led to a heated discussion about the quality of published reconstructions...
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We find that all reconstruction methods contain a large element of stochasticity and it is not possible to compare the methods and draw conclusions from a single or a few realizations. This means that very different results can be obtained using the same reconstruction method on different surrogate fields. This might explain some of the recently published divergent results.
We also find that the amplitude of the low-frequency variability in general is underestimated. All methods systematically give large biases and underestimate both trends and the amplitude of the low-frequency variability. The underestimation is typically 20–50 %. The shape of the low-frequency variability, however, is in general well reconstructed...
Climate hockey stick is broken
It has been shown in many contexts and has been the icon of where things have gone wrong with the climate since the pre-industrial times. This is known as the Mann curve or 'hockey stick' curve that shows the development of the Northern Hemisphere surface temperature over the last 600 years. A new Danish study breaking foundation of the curve.
"Hockey stick curve does not," says klimaforsker (climate researcher) Bo Christiansen from Denmark's Climate Center and add. "That does not mean that we cancel the anthropogenic greenhouse effect, but the foundation has become more nuanced."