pattylou said:
And since the planet had 500million years or so to work on it, I really don't buy the initial premise in the thread that life was too improbable to have occurred "by chance."
The difficulty I have with the statement that life "is quite probable" is: where are the little green men then ?
Let us call L the probability per unit hypercube of spacetime (in units of (10 billion light years)^3 x 10 billion years) to devellop life, including all factors (types of stars, planets, density of stars in the universe, presence of clay...). I take it that if life devellops, then also intelligent life devellops with not too small a probability.
Given the unit I chose, L is also about the probability to find a planet with life on it in the visible universe.
Now, L can take a priori all values: it can be 10^1220 or it can be 10^(-55230). But if we know enough cosmology, planetology, exo geology, chemistry and biology, we can calculate L from a few physical constants (the fundamental constants like the speed of light, Planck's constant and so on and a few cosmological parameters such as the matter density in the universe, its density fluctuations etc...), so L is just a physical quantity that is in principle calculable (although it is extremely difficult to do so in practice). The important point is just that L is a quantity that is determined by the laws of nature and a few cosmological parameters (that give us the expected number of stars, their kinds, the distribution of planets, their geology etc...).
If L is a big value, then the universe is FULL of life, so the question is: WHERE ARE THE LITTLE GREEN MEN ?
If L is a very small value, then the odds of life having develloped in the visible universe is rather small, at odds with what we observe, namely that we are here. It is in this range that the anthropological principle has a meaning: amongst zillions of "possible" universes, we picked (of course) one in which we exist."
However, the arguments here seem to imply that L is of the order of unity: the number of times for life to devellop in the visible universe over about 10 billion years independently is a small positive integer: we are not invaded by little green men all the time, and nevertheless we are here. So of all possible values of L, it turns out that L can only take on values in a rather narrow range. So it seems that our universe has by coincidence those right laws of nature (which determine the constant L) for it to fall in this narrow range. Such a coincidence is usually called: parameter fine tuning, and considered a bad thing (there's a remarquable coincidence that one doesn't understand when such a thing happens).