A 'what if' model of cloud cover and increased warming

  • Thread starter Thread starter jim mcnamara
  • Start date Start date
  • Tags Tags
    Cloud Model
Click For Summary
SUMMARY

The discussion centers on a hypothetical model developed by a research group that examines the effects of increased CO2 levels, specifically at 1200ppm and higher, on stratocumulus cloud formation. Current CO2 levels are slightly above 400ppm. The model suggests that at elevated CO2 levels, cloud decks would fail to form, resulting in an additional 8°C increase in global temperature averages due to reduced light energy reflection. While the model provides valuable insights into cloud dynamics, it is essential to recognize it as a 'what if' scenario rather than a definitive prediction.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of climate modeling concepts
  • Familiarity with CO2 concentration effects on climate
  • Knowledge of stratocumulus cloud formation
  • Basic grasp of radiative heat transfer principles
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the implications of high CO2 levels on cloud formation dynamics
  • Explore the role of clouds in climate regulation and temperature modulation
  • Investigate the effects of increased evaporation on heat retention at night
  • Examine existing climate models that incorporate cloud feedback mechanisms
USEFUL FOR

Climate scientists, environmental researchers, and policymakers interested in understanding the complex interactions between greenhouse gases and cloud formation in climate change scenarios.

jim mcnamara
Mentor
Messages
4,789
Reaction score
3,852
Popular reporting:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/clim...te-change-model-warns/?utm_term=.d40e5e576254
Article in Nature Geoscience:
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41561-019-0310-1 (I can see the article, may be behind a paywall)

Research group created models of stratocumulus cloud formation at very increased levels of increased CO2 , 1200ppm and higher. Our current levels are slightly above 400ppm.

Cloud decks would not form at high CO2 levels and the light energy they no longer reflect would add an additional 8°C to world temperature averages.

This is strictly a hypothetical model. Calling it a 'what if' model is appropriate, if you accept the conclusions of those researchers who built the model.

This model is interesting. Clouds are a component of climate that researchers seem to have avoided in the past. The sad downside is that yellow journalism will turn this into a proclamation of certain impending doom, instead of an instructive model. The Washington Post article cited above is reasonable reporting without much hyperbole. IMO.
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Likes   Reactions: PhanthomJay
Earth sciences news on Phys.org
I read those articles. What was not clear to me was whether the decrease cooling during the day was offset by the increased radiational cooling at night. Would this result in only wider day/night temperature swings or a net increase in average temps as well?
 
They do deal with heat loss. I can't post the graphic because of copyright considerations. IMO the explanation is less than clear, they claim that cloud top effects change the structure (layers) of air with relative humidity being higher at upper level (350m) which traps heat loss at night -- Due to increased evaporation.

You may have a different take on their description of the effect.

The model deals with the subtropics and ocean surfaces mostly, another limitation.
 
Last edited:

Similar threads

Article in Nature On Global Temperature variability
  • · Replies 13 ·
Replies
13
Views
4K
How Do Clouds Respond to Global Warming?
  • · Replies 4 ·
Replies
4
Views
6K
Global warming is not caused by CO2
  • · Replies 184 ·
7
Replies
184
Views
49K