About predicting an event in future.

  • Context: Undergrad 
  • Thread starter Thread starter shivakumar06
  • Start date Start date
  • Tags Tags
    Future
Click For Summary
SUMMARY

This discussion centers on the concept of predicting future events and the implications of probability in this context. It establishes that the probability of any specific future event occurring is effectively zero in a continuous probability space, as only one event can occur when the future becomes the past. The conversation also highlights the limitations of discrete probability spaces and introduces the idea of time series analysis, which posits that past patterns can inform future probabilities.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of probability theory, particularly continuous and discrete probability spaces.
  • Familiarity with time series analysis and its applications in forecasting.
  • Knowledge of statistical concepts related to event occurrence and probability calculations.
  • Basic grasp of mathematical precision and the significance of decimal representation in probability.
NEXT STEPS
  • Explore the fundamentals of continuous probability distributions and their implications.
  • Learn about discrete probability models and their applications in real-world scenarios.
  • Study time series forecasting techniques, including ARIMA and exponential smoothing.
  • Investigate the mathematical principles behind event occurrence and the role of precision in probability calculations.
USEFUL FOR

Statisticians, data analysts, mathematicians, and anyone interested in understanding the complexities of probability and forecasting future events.

shivakumar06
Messages
69
Reaction score
0
we know anything can happen in future.but when future becomes past only one event has actually occurred. so the probability of any future event is 1/∞ that is zero. so technically the event that has happened cannot occur.how do i understand this.
 
Physics news on Phys.org
The probability space of the event might not be infinite (ie discrete), then the argument above fails. In the continuous (infinite) case, we consider the probability over a region since the probability of any single exact event is zero. Think of it this way, the probability of two events happening exactly the same time is zero since you are always count down further decimals like .9923534525252626 to get more accuracy and eventually the numbers will differ in a large enough decimal place. I am not sure if this answers your question.

You can think in terms of time series, which assumes that the pattern in the past will continue in the future, then the probabilities of the future changes.
 
Last edited:

Similar threads

  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
3K
  • · Replies 11 ·
Replies
11
Views
3K
  • · Replies 6 ·
Replies
6
Views
3K
  • · Replies 6 ·
Replies
6
Views
3K
  • · Replies 13 ·
Replies
13
Views
2K
  • · Replies 3 ·
Replies
3
Views
1K
  • · Replies 32 ·
2
Replies
32
Views
4K
  • · Replies 13 ·
Replies
13
Views
4K
  • · Replies 12 ·
Replies
12
Views
3K
  • · Replies 58 ·
2
Replies
58
Views
6K