About the naive definition of probability

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the naive definition of probability, particularly focusing on the requirement of equally likely outcomes and its limitations in handling infinite sample spaces. Participants explore the implications of these concepts in the context of biased coins and the applicability of the naive model in various scenarios.

Discussion Character

  • Conceptual clarification, Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant questions the meaning of "equally likely outcomes" in the context of a biased coin, suggesting that it may not satisfy the naive definition of probability.
  • Another participant agrees that a biased coin cannot be modeled as having equally likely outcomes, explaining that the naive model assumes all events are equally likely.
  • A further contribution suggests a workaround by creating multiple events for heads, but notes that this approach does not reflect an observable difference.
  • Another participant emphasizes the importance of the naive definition as a basic subset of problems, while also acknowledging its limitations in addressing more complex scenarios.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the applicability and limitations of the naive definition of probability, indicating that multiple competing perspectives remain without a clear consensus.

Contextual Notes

The discussion highlights the limitations of the naive definition, particularly regarding biased outcomes and the challenges posed by infinite sample spaces, but does not resolve these issues.

red65
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hello, I took an introductory course about statistics, we viewed the naive definition of probability which says "it requires equally likely outcomes and can't handle an infinite sample space ", I understood that it requires finite sample space but I didn't understand "equally likely outcomes ", does it mean that if we have a coin with no equally likely heads and tales that do not satisfy the naive definition?
 
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That's right, a biased coin cannot be modeled as two events, one heads and one tails, because in the naive model all events are equally likely.

You can kind of jam it in if you squint, e.g. ifthe coin is 2/3 to be heads, then have events H1 and H2 which are both the coin landing heads, and T which is the coin landing tails. But H1 vs H2 is not an observable difference.
 
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ok, thanks a lot!
 
You can call it "naive" but it is an important, basic subset of the problems. And many problems are a series of steps where each step is of that type. But it will not get you very far; there are too many problems that are not like that.
 
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