None of this discussion about clear, rational thought addresses a point I made previously. Imagine you're working at the Nymex, your head buried in your workstation, when someone yells down the hall There's a 747 flying really low, headed this way, and an F-16 chasing it -- RUN!.
Here's the simple fact: You would all run. You would be stupid not to. You don't have time to think about whether or not the guy who yelled knows a Cessna from a Boeing. You don't have time to think about what kinds of flight patterns might simply be photo ops. You don't have time to think about what kinds of markings might be on the plane, or what they mean about how easily it could be hijacked.
You run, because that guy might be right, you haven't yet gathered any of your own evidence, and cynicism could cost you your life.
Once you're outside and the adrenaline rush is over, you might be mentally acute enough to put together the story, see the plane doing lazy circles around the island, and relax. That didn't stop you from running along with all your coworkers, who prompted others to run, who prompted others to run.
In this situation, 1% of the people had all the information, and some of them were not smart enough to put it all together. They sparked a panic among the other 99% which had few facts, but knew well enough not to sit around and wait for a crash.
Panics spread like wildfire, with or without reference to facts -- and that should have been expected by the people who planned this flight. Those YouTube videos of mass pranks serve as evidence of just how self-reinforcing panics are.
- Warren