Just a thout to keep in mind,
A great deal was made of the price of 2014 ACA policies. The same is true for the price of 2015 ACA policies, which were compared to 2014 policies.
Which is silly, because in many instances these estimates were shots in the dark. They were sometimes good shots in the dark, but the target is very small.
When 2015 rates were set, actuaries had, at most, three months of claims with no runout, and the vast majority of membership had signed up days before, with no claims data to study.
Keep in mind that central to the ACA is risk adjustment – I would actually place it as more important than the exchanges, more important than the mandate, and possibly more important than guaranteed issue. The edge servers were supposed to be online and working in 3rd quarter 2013, but weren’t functioning properly the same time a year later. Actuaries, for both 2014 and 2015, were having to price policies assuming a risk adjustment system that was ill-defined and of questionable functionality.
2015 rates weren’t interesting, and you should glean absolutely nothing from them.
2016 rates are another matter entirely.