I have what I think is probably a basic question from probability and statistics (about which I'm pretty ignorant). If I have a set of projectile trajectories that were generated by a Monte Carlo process, and I'd like to know the probability the projectile will come within distance d of some fixed point in space, is there a distribution that is naturally appropriate for this? I'm thinking that I'll find the minimum distance to the point in question for each trajectory, and then see if I can fit those distances to the appropriate distribution. I just don't know what that would be. (Rayleigh, maybe??) Thanks for any suggestions. EDIT: I probably should have stated that we can assume that the Monte Carlo variations used to generate the sample set were normally distributed.