B Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 1% risk of a multi-megaton impact in 2032 (now ruled out)

[TensorCalculus]

View attachment 358767

I mean... there's a chance for a lot of crazy things... they're just really, really, small...

 

[Astronuc]

https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/2024-yr4/

When asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered, it was estimated to have a very small chance of impacting Earth impact on Dec. 22, 2032. After more observations, NASA concluded it poses no significant impact risk to Earth in 2032 and beyond.

There has been some noise about hitting the moon, and some persons want to sent a nuclear warhead to try and explode the asteroid.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit the moon. Scientists propose nuking it before that happens
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...scientists-nuclear-asteroid-moon/86311088007/

https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news210.html

https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Planetary_Defence/Will_asteroid_2024_YR4_hit_the_Moon

https://www.planetary.org/planetary-radio/2025-2024-yr4-and-a-new-administration

 

[Frabjous]

There has been some noise about hitting the moon, and some persons want to sent a nuclear warhead to try and explode the asteroid.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit the moon. Scientists propose nuking it before that happens

I wonder how far a nuke needs to be from Earth to prevent significant EMP effects on a large number of satellites.

 

[DaveC426913]

I wonder how far a nuke needs to be from Earth to prevent significant EMP effects on a large number of satellites.

I think EMPs radii are on the order of hundreds of miles - maybe thousands of miles - not tens of thousands of miles, let alone hundreds of thousands.

The Earth is only 7800 miles in diameter. But an EMP that could knock out electronics world wide would still have to be collossal.

(Naturally, there are factors to consider: such as a] Earth is its own shield so my comparison is inaccurate, and b] it would have to be a pretty big nuke to destroy an asteroid).

 

[ohwilleke]

Crude order of magnitude, back of napkin estimates are still probably good enough to rule out EMP as a serious risk of the proposal.

I would think that the bigger risk would be that if the asteroid was on a path to the moon, but was diverted by a nuke, that some big chunk of it that was going to harmlessly strike the moon might now be diverted to non-harmlessly strike Earth.

 

[sophiecentaur]

I'd like to know if it will make that rumbling noise all the ones on films make. And they're always there when the people look up, too.

I reckon overhead with twelve hours to impact would be comforting. But NIMBY.