Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 1% risk of a multi-megaton impact in 2032 (now ruled out)

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    Asteroid Impact
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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the potential impact risk of asteroid 2024 YR4, which has been estimated to have a 1.2% risk of impacting Earth on December 22, 2032. Participants explore the implications of this risk, including the asteroid's size, energy release upon impact, and the uncertainties involved in predicting its trajectory.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Debate/contested
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants note that the asteroid's estimated diameter is 55 m and that an impact could release energy equivalent to 8 megatons of TNT, but emphasize the large uncertainties in these estimates.
  • Others mention that the asteroid currently has a level 3 rating on the Torino scale, indicating a significant but uncertain risk of impact.
  • It is proposed that if the asteroid were to hit, it would most likely land in an ocean, potentially causing minimal harm, although impacts near populated areas could be catastrophic.
  • Some participants discuss the increasing estimates of impact probability, with one suggesting it could rise to 5% based on current observations.
  • There are discussions about the potential for planetary defense measures, including nudging the asteroid's trajectory to avoid populated areas.
  • Speculation arises regarding the nature of impact predictions, with some questioning the accuracy of the "risk corridor" and the uncertainties involved in predicting the asteroid's path.
  • Participants express uncertainty about the ability to narrow down potential impact points, with some suggesting that the prediction errors could lead to a wide range of possible outcomes.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants generally agree on the existence of a risk associated with asteroid 2024 YR4, but multiple competing views remain regarding the specifics of the impact probability, potential impact zones, and the effectiveness of predictive models. The discussion remains unresolved on many technical aspects.

Contextual Notes

There are limitations in the discussion regarding the assumptions made about the asteroid's trajectory and the uncertainties in the observational data, which may affect the reliability of impact predictions.

  • #31
DaveC426913 said:
View attachment 358767
I mean... there's a chance for a lot of crazy things... they're just really, really, small...
 
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Astronomy news on Phys.org
  • #32
https://science.nasa.gov/solar-system/asteroids/2024-yr4/
When asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered, it was estimated to have a very small chance of impacting Earth impact on Dec. 22, 2032. After more observations, NASA concluded it poses no significant impact risk to Earth in 2032 and beyond.

There has been some noise about hitting the moon, and some persons want to sent a nuclear warhead to try and explode the asteroid.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit the moon. Scientists propose nuking it before that happens
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news...scientists-nuclear-asteroid-moon/86311088007/

https://science.nasa.gov/blogs/planetary-defense/

https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/news/news210.html

https://www.esa.int/Space_Safety/Planetary_Defence/Will_asteroid_2024_YR4_hit_the_Moon

https://www.planetary.org/planetary-radio/2025-2024-yr4-and-a-new-administration
 
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  • #33
Astronuc said:
There has been some noise about hitting the moon, and some persons want to sent a nuclear warhead to try and explode the asteroid.

Asteroid 2024 YR4 could hit the moon. Scientists propose nuking it before that happens

I wonder how far a nuke needs to be from Earth to prevent significant EMP effects on a large number of satellites.
 
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  • #34
Frabjous said:
I wonder how far a nuke needs to be from Earth to prevent significant EMP effects on a large number of satellites.
I think EMPs radii are on the order of hundreds of miles - maybe thousands of miles - not tens of thousands of miles, let alone hundreds of thousands.

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The Earth is only 7800 miles in diameter. But an EMP that could knock out electronics world wide would still have to be collossal.

(Naturally, there are factors to consider: such as a] Earth is its own shield so my comparison is inaccurate, and b] it would have to be a pretty big nuke to destroy an asteroid).
 
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  • #35
Crude order of magnitude, back of napkin estimates are still probably good enough to rule out EMP as a serious risk of the proposal.

I would think that the bigger risk would be that if the asteroid was on a path to the moon, but was diverted by a nuke, that some big chunk of it that was going to harmlessly strike the moon might now be diverted to non-harmlessly strike Earth.
 
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  • #36
I'd like to know if it will make that rumbling noise all the ones on films make. And they're always there when the people look up, too.

I reckon overhead with twelve hours to impact would be comforting. But NIMBY.
 
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